Elo calculator

Match chances from the club and tennis Elo rankings: fair odds, set scores and how the result moves the ratings.

Ratings

Home

Premier League · 2287Elo profile →

Away

Bundesliga · 2243Elo profile →

Neutral ground

Chances

51%1 · Arsenal

25%X

25%2 · Bayern Munich

Elo gap incl. home advantage: +124 · Clubs from different leagues: international parameters

Fair odds

Odds without margin that follow from the Elo chances.

11.9850.5%

X4.0524.7%

24.0424.8%

Double chance

1X1.3375.2%

121.3375.3%

X22.0249.5%

Draw no bet

DNB 11.4967.1%

DNB 23.0432.9%

Compare with bookmaker odds

Enter 1X2 odds to see the margin and where Elo sees more than the market.

12% tax

1X2

Elo knows nothing about line-ups, injuries or motivation. A gap to the market is a lead to check, not a sure thing.

What the result would do

Elo change of both clubs after the match, K = 30. A bigger win counts more, less so for the favourite.

3:0

Arsenal+19.7

Bayern Munich−19.7

2:0

Arsenal+14.9

Bayern Munich−14.9

1:0

Arsenal+9.9

Bayern Munich−9.9

1:1

Arsenal−5.1

Bayern Munich+5.1

0:1

Arsenal−20.1

Bayern Munich+20.1

0:2

Arsenal−32.7

Bayern Munich+32.7

0:3

Arsenal−43.4

Bayern Munich+43.4