Tennis betting

Markets, retirement rules and ten tennis numbers from 51,000 matches: favourites, the first set, games, tie-breaks, serve and retirements.

Tennis favourites at 1.01–1.09 won 94.8% of matches, yet no odds band made a profit and outsiders priced 10 or more won just 2%.

A retirement ends 3.3% of tennis matches: when players quit, who quits and how match-winner, first-set and total games bets settle.

The first-set winner takes 82% of best-of-three matches: how often favourites come back from a set down and how often 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 land.

A best-of-three men's match averages 22.7 games: why a 22.5 line is a bet on a third set, how a tie-break counts and how often −4.5 is covered.

Favourites win 66% of regular sets but only 57% of tie-breaks; how often sets reach 6–6 on each surface, in the ATP and WTA.

An ATP match averages 11.9 aces and a WTA match 5.4: hold rates, break points and how often ace and double-fault lines land.

Over 22.5 games lands in 50.5% of men's grass matches and 40.7% on clay: games, tie-breaks, aces and retirements by surface.