Tennis betting in numbers: markets, rules and what the data says

How tennis differs from football

• No draw. A match always ends with one side winning, so the basic market has two outcomes, not three as in 1X2.
• The format matters. Men play best of five sets at the Grand Slams and best of three at every other event, as women do everywhere. A longer match means less luck and more games.
• Many levels of play. The ATP and WTA are the main tours, Challengers and WTA 125 events are a level below, and the draws also include qualifying. Challengers make up the biggest part of our sample: more than two thirds of men's matches.
• The surface changes the game. Holding serve is easier on grass and harder on clay, which shows in games, tie-breaks and aces.
• Retirements. A player can withdraw during a match, and that changes how bets are settled.

Tennis in a nutshell: point, game, set, match

• Point: every point starts with a serve. Points in a game are counted 15, 30, 40, and at 40-40 it is deuce, from which a player has to win two points in a row.
• Game: one player serves the whole game. The first to four points with a two-point lead wins it. Winning your own service game is a hold, winning your opponent's is a break.
• Set: the first to six games with a two-game lead wins the set (6-4, 7-5). At 6-6 a tie-break to 7 points decides it, and the set ends 7-6.
• Match: best of three sets, and for men at the Grand Slams best of five.

These and dozens of other terms, from break point to lucky loser, are explained in our tennis glossary.

The main markets and their numbers

Rules worth knowing before your first bet

• Retirement: the rule depends on the bookmaker. Some bookmakers void a match-winner bet whenever a player retires, some void it only if not even one set was completed and otherwise pay out on the player who goes through, and some settle it on the player who advances whatever the score. Markets already decided before the retirement, such as a completed first set, are normally settled as usual. Details and numbers: retirements and walkovers in tennis.
• Walkover: refund. The match never started, so bets on it are void.
• Postponed match: every bookmaker has its own time limit, from a fixed number of hours to "by the end of the tournament", or none at all. How these cases are settled: bets on postponed and abandoned matches.
• A tie-break counts as one game in total games and the games handicap, including the 10-point tie-break at the Grand Slams.
• Whole-number lines can push. With a line of 23.0 games and exactly 23 games played, you get your full stake back.

The general settlement rules that apply across sports are in our article on bet settlement rules.

Ten tennis numbers worth knowing

1. The favourite wins 68.8% of matches. At odds of 1.01–1.09 it wins 94.8% of them, at 1.80–2.00 it wins 50.7%.
2. The margin sits in the outsiders' odds. Players priced at 10 or more won 2% of matches, though the odds promised almost 9%.
3. The WTA is not a lottery. Favourites win 68.6% of women's matches, against 67.2% in best-of-three ATP events.
4. The first-set winner wins the match 82% of the time, yet a favourite with an 80–90% chance who loses the first set still wins 53%.
5. A 22.5 games line is a bet on a third set. A men's two-set match averages 19.1 games, a three-set match 29.6, and exactly 24 games come up in only 1.7% of matches.
6. A tie-break levels the field. The favourite wins 66% of ordinary sets but only 57% of tie-breaks.
7. Grass is all about the serve. On grass men hold serve in 81.5% of games and hit 13.1 aces a match, on clay 72.1% and 6.3 aces.
8. Women hit more double faults than aces: 7.3 against 4.6 a match.
9. A retirement ends 3.3% of matches, and only 1.9% on grass. In almost half of the cases it is the favourite who withdraws.
10. An accumulator of five favourites at 1.20 lands 37% of the time and loses about £9.40 of every £100 staked on average.

How to approach a tennis match

• Start with the odds. The match-winner market knows the most. In our tests on closing odds, an Elo rating, with or without a surface adjustment, did not improve the market's forecast at all. It is the same conclusion as in football, described in our article on why a betting model is not enough. Even our football Elo rating with closing odds, which learns from the market, closed only 57% of the gap to it.
• Look at the derivative markets. Total games, the set score and tie-breaks depend on things the match-winner price does not say outright: both players' serve, the surface and the match format.
• Check the surface and the serve. The same games line is a different bet on grass and on clay. The numbers for each surface are in our article on tennis surfaces.
• Don't overrate small samples. A head-to-head of three matches from two years ago, or a grass record of four matches, tells you little.
• Compare odds. The same bet is often priced differently by different bookmakers, and a few hundredths on every bet slip decide your result over hundreds of bets.

Tennis on SharkBetz

• Tennis tips: ATP, WTA and Challenger matches for the next 7 days, with chances for the match winner, set score, total games, games handicap and tie-break, plus H2H and serve profiles, and our tip on some of the matches.
• Match page: full distributions, the bookmakers' line on total games, form, Elo, records by surface, head-to-heads and the path through the tournament.
• Tennis rankings: our Elo ranking, also with a surface adjustment.
• Tennis tips track record: how our tips have done.

When and on which bets we publish tennis tips is described in how we publish tips. The same guide for football: football betting in numbers.

FAQ

How do you bet on tennis?

The simplest bet is on the match winner, with no draw. On top of that come the first-set winner, the set score, total games, the games handicap and tie-breaks. Before you bet, check the surface, the match format and the bookmaker's rule for retirements.

How often does the favourite win in tennis?

In 51,000 matches from 2024–2026 the favourite won 68.8% of those completed normally. At odds below 1.10 it won almost 95% of the time, at odds close to 2.00 about half.

What is a Challenger in tennis?

A men's tour one level below the ATP, played by players outside the top group and by those coming back from injury. In women's tennis the WTA 125 events play a similar role. Bookmakers price these matches too.

What happens to my bet if a tennis player retires?

It depends on the bookmaker's rules. Some void a match-winner bet whenever a player retires, some only when not even one set was completed, and others settle it on the player who goes through. Markets already decided before the retirement, such as the winner of a completed first set, are normally settled as usual.

How many games are there in a tennis match?

Best-of-three men's matches average 22.7 games, women's matches 21.7 and best-of-five men's matches 37.3. A two-set match usually has 17–20 games, a three-set match 25–32.

Does Elo help with tennis betting?

Elo describes a player's form well, but in our tests it did not improve the market's match-winner forecast. Closing odds already contain that knowledge. Elo is useful as a second opinion and for matches with no odds.