First set and set score in tennis: what 51,000 matches tell us
A set goes to the player who first wins six games with a two-game lead (at 6-6 a tie-break decides it), and the match to whoever first wins two sets, or three in men's Grand Slam matches. The winner of the first set wins the match 82% of the time in best-of-three matches and 75% of the time in best-of-five. A favourite who loses the first set is not doomed, though: with a pre-match chance of 70–80% they turn the match around in 41% of cases, and with 80–90% in more than half. We went through 51,179 ATP, WTA and Challenger matches from 2024–2026. We also show how often a match ends 2-0 or 2-1, or goes to a third set, for a given gap in strength.
Key takeaways
- A slight favourite with a 50–60% chance comes back after losing the first set in only 24% of matches.
- When the outsider wins, it wins 2-0 more often than 2-1: in close matches 26.0% against 18.1%.
- A third set is played in 37–39% of matches with a favourite below 70%, but in only 8% with a favourite at 90% or more.
- In best-of-five matches, players came back from two sets down in 62 of 864 cases, or 7.2%.
Set markets
A best-of-three match can end 2-0 or 2-1, and a best-of-five match 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2. The last possible set is called the deciding set. Scoring terms are explained in our tennis glossary.
- First-set winner: who wins the first set.
- Set score (correct score): 2-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-2, and in best-of-five matches 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 and the reverse.
- Number of sets / "will there be a third set": whether the match goes to a deciding set.
- Set handicap ±1.5: the favourite at −1.5 sets means a 2-0 win for them, the outsider at +1.5 means "the outsider wins at least one set".
If a player retires, a bet on the winner of a completed first set is settled, and the other set markets are usually void. Details in our article on retirements in tennis.
How often the first-set winner wins the match
| Matches | Number of matches | First-set winner won the match |
|---|---|---|
| men, best of three | 34,917 | 81.9% |
| women, best of three | 14,854 | 82.1% |
| men, best of five (Grand Slams) | 1,408 | 75.2% |
Four matches out of five are won by the player who took the first set. Best-of-five matches leave more time for a comeback, so the share drops to three quarters. That number includes everything, though: also the matches in which the favourite won the first set simply because they were the better player. What happens when the favourite loses the first set is more interesting.
The favourite after losing the first set
The favourite's chance comes from the closing match-winner odds with the margin removed.
| Favourite's pre-match chance | Favourite won the 1st set | Won the match after winning the 1st set | Won the match after losing the 1st set | Matches with the 1st set lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 54.2% | 82.6% | 24.2% | 5,388 |
| 60–70% | 62.5% | 87.6% | 31.9% | 4,104 |
| 70–80% | 71.8% | 91.8% | 41.0% | 1,998 |
| 80–90% | 82.1% | 96.7% | 53.2% | 647 |
| 90% or more | 95.4% | 99.7% | 68.9% | 45 |
The table covers men in best-of-three matches. Women's numbers are almost the same: a favourite with a 70–80% chance who lost the first set won the match 41.5% of the time, and with 80–90% 56.6%.
What it means for in-play betting:
- A clear favourite who loses a set is still roughly a coin flip. With a pre-match chance of 80–90% they won the match 53% of the time. If the in-play odds give them clearly less than 50%, it is worth noticing.
- A slight favourite who loses a set is in trouble. With a 50–60% chance they came back in only 24% of matches, less than one in four.
- A favourite who wins the first set has almost won the match. With a 70–80% chance, the favourite who took the first set won the match 92% of the time.
These are averages, not a rule for a specific match. A lost set can mean an injury, fatigue or simply the opponent's better day, and the statistics cannot tell those apart.
Set score for a given gap in strength
Men, best-of-three matches:
| Favourite's chance | Favourite 2-0 | Favourite 2-1 | Outsider 2-1 | Outsider 2-0 | Third set | Outsider wins at least a set |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 34.8% | 20.9% | 18.1% | 26.0% | 39.1% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 43.8% | 22.7% | 14.4% | 18.8% | 37.2% | 56.2% |
| 70–80% | 55.1% | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 32.9% | 44.9% |
| 80–90% | 71.3% | 17.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 23.0% | 28.7% |
| 90% or more | 90.9% | 7.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% |
Women, best-of-three matches:
| Favourite's chance | Favourite 2-0 | Favourite 2-1 | Outsider 2-1 | Outsider 2-0 | Third set |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 34.1% | 20.3% | 18.6% | 27.1% | 38.9% |
| 60–70% | 43.2% | 21.8% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 36.9% |
| 70–80% | 56.2% | 21.9% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 32.5% |
| 80–90% | 71.8% | 17.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 22.6% |
| 90% or more | 89.9% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 8.6% |
Three observations:
- When the outsider wins, it wins 2-0 more often than 2-1 (in close matches 26.0% against 18.1%). Tennis upsets are rarely a grind: a weaker player having their day often wins comfortably.
- The third set is a market for close matches. With the favourite below 70% there was a third set in 37–39% of matches, with a favourite at 90% or more in 8%.
- "Outsider to win a set" (+1.5 sets) lands in two matches out of three when the match is close, and in 45% with a favourite at 70–80%. It is a bet that the favourite won't win comfortably, not a bet on an upset.
How many games each of these scenarios means is shown in our article on total games and the games handicap.
Grand Slams: best-of-five matches
| Favourite's chance | Matches | Favourite 3-0 | Five sets | Outsider won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 303 | 20.5% | 31.0% | 40.9% |
| 60–70% | 336 | 30.7% | 26.5% | 31.2% |
| 70–80% | 323 | 37.2% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| 80–90% | 299 | 47.2% | 15.7% | 11.0% |
| 90% or more | 146 | 64.4% | 8.2% | 3.4% |
Even a favourite at 90% or more wins 3-0 in only two matches out of three. Five sets were played in 22.6% of all these matches.
Coming back from two sets down. A player who lost the first two sets won the match in 62 of 864 cases, or 7.2%. Such comebacks stick in the memory precisely because they are rare.
Sets on SharkBetz
On our tennis tips the "Sets" column shows the most likely set score and the chance of a deciding set, and the match page shows the chance of every score, of the first-set winner and of the match going the full distance. The overall numbers on favourites are in our article on tennis favourites, and an introduction to tennis as a whole in tennis betting in numbers.
FAQ
How often does the first-set winner win a tennis match?
In best-of-three matches 82% of the time, for men and women alike. In best-of-five men's matches 75%. Data from 51,179 matches from 2024–2026.
Does the favourite win after losing the first set?
Often, yes. A favourite with a pre-match chance of 70–80% won the match after losing the first set 41% of the time, with 80–90% 53% of the time. A slight favourite (50–60%) came back in only 24% of matches.
How often does a tennis match go to three sets?
A third set was played in 34.5% of men's and 33.6% of women's best-of-three matches. In close matches it was 37–39%, and with a favourite at over 90% only 8%.
What does a +1.5 set handicap mean?
An outsider at +1.5 sets wins the bet if they take at least one set, that is, when the match does not end 2-0 to the favourite. With a favourite at 70–80% that happened in 45% of matches.
How often does a tennis player win from two sets down?
In best-of-five matches the comeback from 0-2 came off in 62 of 864 matches, or 7.2% of the time.