Tennis favourites: how often they win at each price
The favourite is the player with the lower odds to win the match, the one the bookmaker considers more likely to win, and the outsider is the opponent. A tennis favourite wins almost as often as the odds promise: at 1.05 in 95% of matches, at 1.25 in 78%, at 1.70 in 54%. We checked this on 50,458 ATP, WTA and Challenger matches from 2024–2026. The bookmaker's margin sits mainly in the outsiders' odds: players priced at 10 or more won 2% of matches, though their odds promised almost 9%. The myth of the "unpredictable WTA" does not hold up, and an accumulator of five favourites at 1.20 lands 37% of the time and loses an average of £9.40 for every £100 staked.
Key takeaways
- No favourite odds band comes out ahead: the margin costs £0.80 per £100 at 1.01–1.09 and grows to £7 per £100 at 1.80–2.00.
- Outsiders priced 6.00–9.99 won 7% of matches instead of the 13% their odds promised, an average result of −£49.30 per £100.
- At odds of 1.20–1.49 the favourite won 71.6% of ATP matches and 72.2% of WTA matches; the WTA differs in how matches unfold, with more breaks of serve.
- In men's Grand Slam matches the favourite won 75.6% of the time, because best of five sets leaves less room for chance.
Where the data comes from
- Matches. 50,458 completed singles matches from January 2024 to September 2026: ATP, WTA, Challengers and WTA 125, main draws and qualifying.
- Odds. The closing odds on the match winner, the last price before the first ball, with a margin of 5–8%.
- Retirements. We leave out matches ended by a retirement and walkovers, because how a match-winner bet settles then depends on the bookmaker's rules, not just on who went through. How many there are and when they happen is covered in our article on retirements and walkovers in tennis.
"Chance from the odds" is simply 1 divided by the odds, margin included. If the favourite wins less often than that, the difference is what the bet costs you.
How often the favourite wins: odds table
| Favourite's odds | Matches | Chance from the odds | Favourite won | Result per £100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.09 | 4,246 | 95.6% | 94.8% | −£0.80 |
| 1.10–1.19 | 5,081 | 87.0% | 84.8% | −£2.50 |
| 1.20–1.29 | 6,316 | 80.1% | 78.2% | −£2.50 |
| 1.30–1.39 | 6,759 | 74.3% | 71.5% | −£3.70 |
| 1.40–1.49 | 7,243 | 69.2% | 65.7% | −£5.10 |
| 1.50–1.64 | 10,283 | 63.7% | 60.3% | −£5.40 |
| 1.65–1.79 | 7,846 | 58.3% | 54.4% | −£6.70 |
| 1.80–2.00 | 2,684 | 54.5% | 50.7% | −£7.00 |
"Result per £100" is the average outcome if you staked £100 on every favourite in that band.
Two things stand out:
- The shorter the price, the less margin. At around 1.05 a favourite wins almost exactly as often as the odds promise, and you lose less than £1 per £100. At odds close to 2.00 the loss grows to £7.
- No band beats the margin. The 5–8% margin in these prices is split unevenly: favourites carry a small part of it and outsiders the rest (next section). Every row is still in the red, so even the safest favourites only lose more slowly.
Blindly backing favourites is the cheapest way to lose, but it is still losing. How to strip the margin out of the odds and compare them with your own estimate is shown in our fair odds calculator.
Outsiders: where the margin sits
The other side of the same matches looks completely different:
| Outsider's odds | Matches | Chance from the odds | Outsider won | Result per £100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00–2.99 | 26,319 | 42.1% | 38.2% | −£9.50 |
| 3.00–3.99 | 8,955 | 29.4% | 24.9% | −£15.50 |
| 4.00–5.99 | 5,947 | 21.2% | 15.9% | −£25.10 |
| 6.00–9.99 | 3,246 | 13.4% | 7.0% | −£49.30 |
| 10 and over | 1,312 | 8.6% | 2.0% | −£77.50 |
Players priced at 10 or more won 26 of 1,312 matches. The odds promised more than four times as many. Research on betting markets knows this as the favourite-longshot bias: the bookmaker loads most of the margin onto the odds that punters like to back with small stakes in the hope of a big win. How the bookmaker's margin works is covered separately.
The practical lesson: a "shock at 8.00" is a bet that loses half its stake on average. A tip like that needs more behind it than a hunch.
Is the WTA less predictable?
A popular view says women's tennis has more upsets. The data does not back it up:
| Competition | Matches | Favourite's average chance (no margin) | Favourite won | Favourite priced below 1.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP, best of three sets | 9,253 | 65.8% | 67.2% | 25.8% of matches |
| ATP, Grand Slams (best of five) | 1,407 | 72.2% | 75.6% | 49.0% of matches |
| Challenger | 25,117 | 66.5% | 68.9% | 30.4% of matches |
| WTA | 10,164 | 67.4% | 68.6% | 32.8% of matches |
| WTA 125 | 4,517 | 67.6% | 69.3% | 35.5% of matches |
WTA favourites won slightly more often than favourites at best-of-three ATP events. At the same odds (1.20 to 1.49) the result is almost identical: the favourite won 71.6% of ATP matches and 72.2% of WTA matches.
So where does the idea of chaos come from? From how matches unfold, not from how they end. On the WTA players hold serve in 63% of games, on the ATP in 76%, so a match has more breaks and more swings. The serve numbers are in our article on serve, aces and double faults.
Grand Slams: five sets help favourites
In men's best-of-five matches the favourite won 75.6% of the time, and in every second match his odds were below 1.30. A longer match leaves less room for chance: an off day or one lost tie-break does not decide the result. Bookmakers know this, so favourites' odds at the Grand Slams are simply shorter.
Qualifying has a similar effect for a different reason: the gaps in level are bigger, so the favourite won 70.3% of matches against 67.7% in main draws. The surface changes little: on clay favourites won 69.3% of matches, on grass 68.7%, on hard courts 68.4%. The details are in our article on tennis surfaces.
Favourite accumulators
"Bankers at 1.20 on one slip" is one of the most popular ideas in tennis betting. Favourites priced 1.15 to 1.24 won 81.8% of matches in our sample. This is what a slip of several such selections looks like:
| Selections on the slip | Slip odds | Chance of winning | Result per £100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.44 | 66.9% | −£3.90 |
| 3 | 1.72 | 54.8% | −£5.80 |
| 5 | 2.47 | 36.6% | −£9.40 |
| 8 | 4.25 | 20.1% | −£14.70 |
| 10 | 6.10 | 13.4% | −£18.00 |
Every extra selection multiplies the margin, so a longer slip loses more. Five "bankers" land less than half the time, and ten roughly once in seven. If a player retires and the bookmaker voids that leg, it counts at odds of 1.00 and the rest of the slip plays on. How combined bets work is explained in our article on accumulator bets.
What this means
- A favourite's odds are fairer than an outsider's, but backing every favourite still loses between £0.80 and £7 per £100, depending on the price.
- Long odds are the most expensive bet. Outsiders priced 6.00 and over won about half as often as their odds promised.
- The WTA is not a lottery. WTA favourites win just as often as ATP favourites at the same odds.
- Look for an edge elsewhere: in comparing odds across several bookmakers, in derivative markets such as total games and set betting, and in staking discipline.
On our tennis betting tips, every match shows each player's chance of winning from the odds with the margin removed, and next to it a second opinion from our Elo rating. How we publish tennis tips is explained in how we publish tips. A full introduction to tennis as a betting sport: tennis betting in numbers.
FAQ
How often do favourites win in tennis?
In 50,458 matches from 2024–2026 the favourite won 68.8% of the time. At odds of 1.01–1.09 in 94.8% of matches, at 1.20–1.29 in 78.2%, and at 1.80–2.00 in 50.7%. Matches ended by a retirement are not counted.
Is it worth backing favourites in tennis?
Not blindly. Favourites' odds carry the least margin: at around 1.05 you lose less than £1 per £100. But no odds band is in profit, and the loss runs from £0.80 to £7 per £100 depending on the price.
Are there more upsets in women's tennis?
No. WTA favourites won 68.6% of matches, favourites at best-of-three ATP events 67.2%. At the same odds the results are almost identical. What the WTA does have is more breaks of serve during a match.
How often does a player at odds of 3.00 win?
Outsiders priced 3.00 to 3.99 won 24.9% of matches, though their odds promised 29.4% on average. Staking £100 on each of them would have lost £15.50 per bet on average.
How often does an accumulator of tennis favourites at 1.20 win?
Favourites priced 1.15–1.24 won 81.8% of matches. A slip of three such selections lands 54.8% of the time, of five 36.6%, and of ten 13.4%. Each of them loses an average of £5.80 to £18 for every £100 staked.