Statistics and models

An Elo that learns from results and closing odds: on 35,455 matches it beat classic Elo and closed 57% of the gap to the market.

How to read attack and defence ratings: 1500 is the league average and +100 points means about 1.2 times the goals.

Our model predicts as well as a tuned Elo, yet none of 89 simple betting rules beat Pinnacle prices. Where the gap comes from.

Pinnacle odds of 7,796 matches: when the market prices in news, how much line-ups move it and why our tips come out at 12:00.