Correct score betting: how a bet on the exact result works
Correct score is a bet on one exact result of a match, such as 2-1, and it wins only if the match ends exactly that way. Even the most likely score had on average only a 12.2% chance in 2,660 Premier League matches, which is why the odds run so high. We explain how the bet settles, how to work out its break-even chance, how dutching several scores works and why a surebet on this market is not practical.
Key takeaways
- Even the most likely score of a match had on average only a 12.2% chance across 2,660 Premier League games.
- Odds of 8.50 imply an 11.8% chance, so £20 on 2-1 returns £170 and only pays off in the long run when the real chance of that score is higher.
- The 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 dutch in the example has combined odds of about 2.69, so it only pays off when one of the three scores has a better than 37.2% chance.
- A surebet on correct score is not practical, and dutching a few scores is an ordinary bet that can lose.
What is a correct score bet?
A correct score bet is one where you predict both teams' goals at once. A tip of 2-1 means the home side score exactly two and the away side exactly one. Any other result, even 3-1 or 2-2, is a loss.
Bookmakers list the market as correct score, CS or sometimes exact score. Next to the usual scores they often add an option such as "any other score" for rare results. That is a separate selection, with its own rules in the bookmaker's terms.
The bet settles on the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time), without extra time or penalties, unless the rules say otherwise.
How a correct score bet settles
An example for a tip of 2-1:
| Final score | Tip 2-1 |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | Win |
| 1-0 | Loss |
| 3-1 | Loss |
| 2-2 | Loss |
| 1-2 | Loss |
There are no refunds and no half settlements. The bet lands on exactly one score.
Why the odds are so high
A football match can end in dozens of different scores, and even the most likely of them (often 1-1 or 1-0) usually comes up in only a few to just over ten per cent of matches. In 2,660 Premier League matches it had on average a 12.2% chance, and 1-1 was the most likely score as long as the favourite had less than about a 60% chance of winning (details and tables). In the 2026/27 Premier League season 1-1 is the most likely score in 73% of matches, including many Big Six matches. Hence odds of around 6.00–10.00 on the typical scores and much higher on the rare ones. The most likely scores of a given match, according to the betting market and to our model, are on the match page; how to read that grid is explained in how to read the match page.
High odds do not mean more value. On markets with many selections the bookmaker's margin is often higher than on 1X2, and it is spread across every score. Compare the odds at several bookmakers and check them against your own estimate of the probability, for example in the fair odds calculator.
A worked example: £20 on 2-1
You stake £20 on 2-1 at odds of 8.50.
- The match ends 2-1: the payout is 20 × 8.50 = £170, a profit of £150.
- Any other score: −£20.
Odds of 8.50 imply a probability of about 11.8% (1 / 8.50), and that is also the break-even point: the bet pays off in the long run only when the real chance of this score is above about 11.8%. Because the bookmaker's margin is built into the odds, the implied chance usually overstates the real one, so that bar is harder to clear than it looks. Skrill Final Score, a free game in which you predict the scores of six Premier League matches a round, has no such bar, because a wrong score costs nothing.
Correct score and other markets
Every other full-match market can be built from correct scores:
1in the 1X2 market is the sum of every score in which the home side have more goals (1-0, 2-0, 2-1…),Under 2.5in over/under betting is the scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2,BTTS noin both teams to score is every score with a zero on either side,Under 0.5 (away)in team total goals is every score with nil for the away team: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and so on.
Half-time/full-time (HT/FT) is built the same way: nine options from the results of the two halves, with similarly high odds on the rare ones. The 2/1 HT/FT reversal, for example, lands in 2.6% of matches (more in our piece on half-time/full-time betting). The HT/FT margin is just as high: 20–37% at three recreational bookmakers we track.
That is why correct score suits dutching so well: several scores together make "your own market", at odds the bookmaker may not offer.
Dutching several correct scores
Dutching means splitting one stake across several selections so that the payout is the same whichever of them lands. The dutching calculator in "From bet list" mode has a "Correct score" selection, where you set the home and away goals (from 0 to 10).
An example: you want to cover 1-0 (odds 7.00), 2-0 (odds 9.00) and 2-1 (odds 8.50) with a total stake of £100. You split the stake in proportion to the inverse of the odds:
| Score | Odds | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 7.00 | £38.44 | £269.08 |
| 2-0 | 9.00 | £29.90 | £269.10 |
| 2-1 | 8.50 | £31.66 | £269.11 |
The combined odds are 1 / (1/7.00 + 1/9.00 + 1/8.50) ≈ 2.69. If one of the three scores lands, you collect about £269.10, a profit of about £169.10; if the match ends any other way, you lose the whole £100. The dutch pays off only when the real chance of one of the three scores is above about 37.2% (1 / 2.69).
The calculator works these stakes out automatically, rounds them and shows in its "Settlement by score" table how the set-up settles on every possible score. You can also combine correct scores with other markets, such as 2-0 with BTTS yes: the calculator shows where the tips exclude each other and where they overlap. Draw no bet works too: its refund on a draw shows as a separate scenario in the table.
Correct score and the surebet calculator
The surebet calculator does not cover correct score. A surebet has to cover every possible result of the match, and on correct score that would mean dozens of bets at different bookmakers. For correct scores use the dutching calculator, which covers only the part of the market you choose. That is an ordinary bet that can lose, not arbitrage.
What to watch out for
- It is easy to overrate what you know. Even a good read of a match usually gives one specific score a chance of only ten-odd per cent.
- Many scores mean low combined odds. Every extra score in a dutch raises the chance of a hit but lowers the payout.
- "Any other score" has its own rules. Check which scores it covers before you add it to a set-up.
- Bet responsibly. Correct score bets are highly volatile: long runs without a winner are normal.
In other sports
In ice hockey correct score is popular too and usually covers regular time. In tennis and volleyball the equivalent is the set score, such as 2-1 or 3-1. There are far fewer possible results there, so the odds are much lower as well. How the set scores split for a favourite of a given strength is shown in our piece on first set and set betting.
FAQ
What is a correct score bet?
A bet on one exact result of a match, such as 2-1. It wins only if the match ends with exactly that score after regular time.
Does correct score include extra time?
Usually not: the bet settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Exceptions are in the bookmaker's rules, so check them for cup matches.
How do I back several correct scores at once?
The simplest way is dutching: you split the stake across several scores so that each gives the same payout. The dutching calculator works out the stakes and shows the combined odds and the break-even chance.
Can you build a surebet on correct score?
Not in practice, because you would have to cover every possible score of the match. That is why the surebet calculator has no correct score market, and a handful of chosen scores is backed by dutching instead.
What is the most common score in football?
Low scores such as 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 come up most often, but each of them happens in only a share of matches. It depends on the league and the teams, so no score is a sure thing.