Half-time/full-time (HT/FT) betting: how often the half-time result is reversed
An HT/FT reversal is a half-time/full-time result in which the team losing at the break goes on to win the match: 2/1 or 1/2. We checked 281,843 league matches from 37 leagues played between 1995 and 2026. A reversal came up in 4.6% of them, about once every 22 games, and a team leading by one goal at half-time won 68% of matches. Below are all nine HT/FT results with their fair odds, reversals by the strength of the favourite and by league, and what a bet on one half costs at three recreational bookmakers we track.
Key takeaways
- An HT/FT reversal, a half-time result turned around after the break, came up in 4.6% of 281,843 league matches, about once every 22 games.
- Home sides come back more often than away sides, so 2/1 landed in 2.6% of matches and 1/2 in 2.0%, which puts their fair odds at about 38 and 50.
- A team one goal up at half-time won 68% of matches and a team two goals up 90%, while 42% of matches were level at the break.
- A reversal in the favourite's favour lands in 3–4% of matches almost regardless of its odds, while a reversal against the favourite rises from 0.5% with the favourite below 1.30 to 2.3% from 2.20.
- Differences between leagues are small and unstable, with reversals in 6.0% of matches in Denmark and 3.0% in Argentina, and the 2014–2020 league ranking barely predicted later seasons.
What an HT/FT bet and a reversal are
A half-time/full-time bet (HT/FT, also called the double result) combines two predictions: the result at half-time and the result after 90 minutes. Each of them is 1, X or 2, as in a plain 1X2 bet, so the market has nine options:
- 1/1, X/X, 2/2: the same result at half-time and at full-time,
- X/1 and X/2: level at the break, then a win for one side,
- 1/X and 2/X: a half-time lead, then a draw at full-time,
- 2/1 and 1/2: reversals. 2/1 means the away side leads at half-time and the home side wins the match; 1/2 is the other way round.
The first figure is always the half-time result, the second the full-time one. What counts is the first half including stoppage time and the whole match in regulation time, meaning 90 minutes plus stoppage time, without extra time or penalties. Some bettors call any match whose result changes after the break a turnaround, 1/X and X/2 included. In this guide a reversal means only 2/1 and 1/2, a half-time result turned completely around.
HT/FT should not be confused with the separate first-half market (first-half 1X2): a bet on the half-time result alone, with no full-time result.
Where the numbers come from
- Matches: 281,843 league matches from 37 domestic leagues (from the Premier League and the Championship to MLS and the Japanese league) with a half-time score, from 1995 to 24 September 2026. League matches decided in 90 minutes only, without walkovers or results awarded off the pitch.
- Odds: Pinnacle 1X2 closing odds with the margin removed for 66,281 of these matches from 13 European leagues (2012–2026), to check reversals by the strength of the favourite.
- Recreational bookmakers' prices: the last pre-match odds on the full-time and first-half markets from our readings of three recreational bookmakers' offers, about 800 matches at each, played between 2 and 20 October 2026.
Fair odds in the tables are 1 divided by the frequency, meaning odds without the bookmaker's margin.
All HT/FT results: how often each one lands
| HT/FT | all leagues | fair odds | Premier League | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 27.1% | 3.69 | 28.2% | 26.3% |
| 2/2 | 16.1% | 6.20 | 16.5% | 15.9% |
| X/X | 15.9% | 6.29 | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| X/1 | 15.4% | 6.48 | 15.2% | 15.0% |
| X/2 | 10.6% | 9.41 | 10.6% | 10.9% |
| 1/X | 5.2% | 19.16 | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| 2/X | 4.9% | 20.25 | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 2/1 | 2.6% | 37.99 | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| 1/2 | 2.0% | 49.91 | 1.9% | 2.0% |
The Premier League column covers 11,830 matches since 1995/96, the Championship 16,226 since 1997/98. The most common HT/FT result is 1/1: in more than one match in four the home side leads at half-time and wins. Reversals are the two rarest results. Together they land in 4.6% of matches, and 2/1 is about a third more common than 1/2 because home sides come back more often: it is the same home advantage that gives them a win in 44% of matches (more in football betting in numbers).
Over a 380-match Premier League season that works out at about 20 reversals on average (at the rate of recent seasons, 5.2%). A round of ten matches has at least one reversal roughly two times in five.
What a half-time lead is worth
| half-time lead | matches | leader wins | draw | leader loses (reversal) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal, home side | 68,727 | 72.9% | 19.4% | 7.7% |
| 1 goal, away side | 51,230 | 61.8% | 24.7% | 13.5% |
| 2 goals, home side | 21,938 | 92.4% | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| 2 goals, away side | 12,756 | 86.6% | 9.5% | 3.9% |
| 3 goals or more | 8,897 | 98.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
A team leading by one goal at half-time won 68.2% of matches, by two 90.3% and by three 98.2%. A reversal is therefore almost always a one-goal lead turned around. Away sides throw away a lead noticeably more often: they lost 13.5% of the matches in which they led by one goal, home sides 7.7%.
Even in the biggest fixtures a reversal is rare. In El Clásico since 1993/94, someone led at half-time in 34 league meetings, and the result was reversed only once: in October 2023 Barcelona led 1-0 at half-time and lost 2-1.
This is how matches ended after the most common half-time scores (home side's goals first):
| half-time score | share of matches | home win | draw | away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 30.6% | 36.3% | 38.5% | 25.1% |
| 1-0 | 20.7% | 73.0% | 19.4% | 7.6% |
| 0-1 | 15.5% | 13.5% | 24.6% | 62.0% |
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 38.0% | 36.2% | 25.8% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 92.5% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| 0-2 | 4.1% | 4.0% | 9.3% | 86.7% |
| 2-1 | 3.5% | 72.2% | 19.6% | 8.1% |
| 1-2 | 2.6% | 13.6% | 25.1% | 61.3% |
At 1-0 and at 2-1 at half-time the home side won almost equally often (73.0% and 72.2%), even though at 2-1 three goals had already gone in. What counts is the margin, not the number of goals. 42.0% of matches were level at half-time, most often at 0-0 (30.6% of all matches), while a draw stands at full-time in 26% of matches (leagues and odds in our guide to football draw statistics). After 0-0 at half-time, 38.5% of matches ended in a draw; after 1-1, 36.2%.
More goals go in after the break than before it: 1.51 on average against 1.18, or 56% of a match's goals. That is why a level half-time so often gets settled and why a one-goal lead is not safe. When goals go in is covered in late goals: myth or pattern.
Reversals and the favourite
Is a reversal more often a favourite coming from behind, or an outsider overturning the favourite's lead? We checked 66,281 matches with Pinnacle closing odds. The favourite is the team with the higher win chance implied by the odds, at home or away.
| favourite's odds | matches | favourite behind at half-time | and wins the match | reversal for the favourite | reversal against the favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| below 1.30 (avg 1.20) | 3,593 | 8.8% | 43.4% of those | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| 1.30–1.49 (avg 1.40) | 5,607 | 12.6% | 27.7% of those | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| 1.50–1.79 (avg 1.65) | 12,235 | 16.8% | 20.5% of those | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 1.80–2.19 (avg 2.00) | 19,084 | 21.0% | 14.6% of those | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 2.20 and above (avg 2.46) | 25,762 | 25.2% | 10.9% of those | 2.8% | 2.3% |
A reversal in the favourite's favour lands in 3–4% of matches almost regardless of how strong the favourite is. A strong favourite rarely trails at half-time (8.8% of matches at odds below 1.30), but when it does, it goes on to win 43% of the time. A weaker favourite trails at the break three times as often but comes back to win only about once in nine such matches. A reversal against the favourite, on the other hand, grows as the match gets more even: from 0.5% to 2.3%.
Even a strong favourite that trails at half-time loses more often than it wins. With the favourite priced below 1.60 and one goal down at the break, it won 32.8% of 1,100 such matches, drew 28.0% and lost 39.2%.
These are the fair HT/FT odds from the point of view of the favourite (F) and the outsider (O):
| HT/FT | favourite below 1.50 (avg 1.32) | favourite 1.50–1.99 (avg 1.76) | favourite 2.00 and above (avg 2.36) |
|---|---|---|---|
| F/F | 1.9 | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| X/F | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.6 |
| X/X | 12.2 | 6.8 | 5.7 |
| O/O | 22.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 |
| O/F (reversal for the favourite) | 27.7 | 29.6 | 35.9 |
| F/O (reversal against the favourite) | 153.3 | 63.2 | 45.6 |
These are odds without margin, so they are also the break-even point: a reversal bet only pays in the long run at odds above them. A reversal for a strong favourite (fair 27.7) needs odds above 27.7, and a plain 2/1 (fair 38) odds above 38. You can work out fair odds from your own probabilities in the fair odds calculator.
Reversals by league
In matches since July 2015 (the 2015/16 season), reversals came up in 4.8% of matches across the 37 leagues. The leagues with the highest and the lowest rates, plus England's top two divisions and the rest of Europe's big five:
| league | matches | reversals | 2/1 | 1/2 | level at half-time | goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark, Superliga | 2,408 | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 39.1% | 2.84 |
| Netherlands, Eerste Divisie | 4,126 | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 37.0% | 3.15 |
| Belgium, Pro League | 3,531 | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 40.2% | 2.89 |
| USA, MLS | 4,965 | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 38.8% | 2.98 |
| Italy, Serie A | 4,229 | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 41.1% | 2.73 |
| Germany, Bundesliga | 3,420 | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 37.7% | 3.08 |
| England, Premier League | 4,230 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 39.6% | 2.82 |
| England, Championship | 6,213 | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 42.8% | 2.54 |
| France, Ligue 1 | 3,920 | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 40.9% | 2.71 |
| Spain, LaLiga | 4,249 | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 43.5% | 2.64 |
| Brazil, Série A | 4,365 | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 44.3% | 2.40 |
| Romania, Superliga | 3,335 | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 45.6% | 2.40 |
| Argentina, Primera División | 4,277 | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 47.8% | 2.19 |
Reversals are more common where more goals go in: across the 37 leagues the correlation between the reversal rate and goals per game is 0.66. More goals mean more chances for a lead to appear and to be overturned. In Argentina, with the fewest goals, almost every other match is level at half-time and there are half as many reversals as in Denmark.
The league ranking is not stable, though. A league's reversal rate in 2014–2020 (July to July) and in matches since July 2020 correlate at just 0.28. The gap between a league at 5.5% and one at 4.8% is largely chance: over about 300 matches a season it comes to two extra reversals. A list of "reversal leagues" from one season therefore says little about the next. It is the same problem we describe with football streaks: look through dozens of leagues and one of them will always look exceptional.
Are reversals becoming more common?
Slightly. In matches up to mid-2010 a reversal came up 4.40% of the time, from mid-2010 to mid-2018 4.60%, and since mid-2018 4.92%. Over the same period the share of matches level at half-time fell from 42.5% to 40.9%. It is a small change: in a 300-match season, one and a half reversals more than twenty years ago. The share of half-time leaders who go on to win has barely moved (75.0% up to mid-2010 and 74.0% since mid-2018).
What a bet on one half costs
First the first-half market (the half-time result) at three recreational bookmakers we track, with the last pre-match odds in the same matches as the full-time result:
| bookmaker | matches | margin: full time (1X2) | margin: first half |
|---|---|---|---|
| bookmaker A | 790 | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| bookmaker B | 802 | 7.8% | 8.6% |
| bookmaker C | 767 | 7.8% | 9.8% |
These are medians from matches played between 2 and 20 October 2026. At all three, a first-half bet costs more than a bet on the full-time result, by 0.8–2.0 percentage points of margin. The HT/FT market itself, with nine options instead of three, is dearer still, like correct score: in 834 matches from October 2026 its median margin was 20% at bookmaker B, 24% at bookmaker C and 37% at bookmaker A. A reversal for the favourite was priced at 21–26 against fair odds of about 34, so even the best of the three prices returned about £81 for every £100 staked.
How (not) to bet reversals
- A reversal is a bet with fair odds of 30–50 and a 2–3% chance, and bookmakers usually pay 20–40 for it. With one reversal (2/1 or 1/2) per bet slip, a run of 50 losing matches in a row happens 26% of the time on 2/1, and a run of 100 losers 13% of the time on 1/2. These are normal runs, not proof that a reversal is "due".
- Direction matters. A reversal for the favourite (the outsider leads at half-time, the favourite wins) is more common than the opposite in every odds band, and several times more common with a strong favourite. A reversal against a favourite priced below 1.50 comes up less than once in 150 matches.
- High-scoring leagues produce more reversals, but the differences are small and change from season to season. The number of goals in a match is already in the odds, so picking the league gives you no edge over the bookmaker.
- A half-time bet instead of a reversal. If you want to back a comeback, you can wait until half-time and place an in-play bet on the match result once the first-half score is known. The odds will be lower, but you pay only for the second half, not for guessing both.
- Double chance the other way. "The half-time leader will not lose" is in practice an in-play double chance bet: with a one-goal lead it wins in 89.8% of matches, with a two-goal lead in 97.5%.
Summary
A reversal is a rare result: 2/1 and 1/2 together come up in 4.6% of league matches, once every 22 games, and 2/1 more often than 1/2 because home sides come back more often. A one-goal half-time lead brings a win in 68% of matches and a two-goal lead in 90%, while a level half-time, seen in 42% of matches, usually gets settled. A reversal for the favourite lands in 3–4% of matches whatever its odds, and a reversal against the favourite gets rarer the stronger the favourite. Leagues differ mainly in the number of goals, and a ranking of "reversal leagues" does not hold from season to season. Before you bet a reversal, compare the odds with the fair odds in the tables above: 2/1 only pays in the long run above about 38, and 1/2 above about 50. Every league's HT/FT table for the current season is in its league stats, for example the Premier League stats.
FAQ
What is an HT/FT reversal in betting?
A reversal is a half-time/full-time (HT/FT) result in which the team losing after the first half wins the match: 2/1 (the away side leads at half-time, the home side wins) or 1/2 (the other way round). In 281,843 matches from 37 leagues, a reversal came up 4.6% of the time.
What does 2/1 mean in a half-time/full-time bet?
The first figure is the half-time result, the second the full-time result. 2/1 means the away side leads after the first half and the home side wins the match. That result came up in 2.6% of matches, so its fair odds are about 38; for 1/2 (1.9–2.0% of matches) they are about 50.
How often does the team leading at half-time win?
A team leading by one goal at half-time won 68.2% of matches, by two 90.3% and by three or more 98.2%. Home sides leading by one goal win 72.9% of matches, away sides 61.8%.
Does a draw at half-time mean a draw at full-time?
Usually not. 42.0% of matches were level at half-time, but after 0-0 at the break only 38.5% of matches ended in a draw, and after 1-1 36.2%. In the rest someone won, more often the home side.
Which league has the most HT/FT reversals?
Since the 2015/16 season (matches from July 2015) the most reversals came in Denmark's Superliga (6.0% of matches), the Dutch Eerste Divisie (5.8%) and Belgium's Pro League (5.7%), the fewest in Argentina (3.0%). The Premier League had 5.2%. The league ranking barely holds from season to season, though, so it is largely chance.
Does extra time count for an HT/FT bet?
No. A half-time/full-time bet settles on the first half and on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count, cup matches included.