How often do football matches end in a draw, and in which leagues?
A draw comes up in one football match in four. We checked 301,366 league matches from 37 leagues played between 1992 and 2026: 26.1% of them were drawn, and almost half of the draws finished 1-1. Draws are most common in Argentina and least common in high-scoring leagues such as the Dutch Eerste Divisie, while the Premier League, at 23.8% since 2015/16, sits below the overall rate. Below are the leagues, one league season by season, the matches where a draw is most likely, whether draw odds are accurate, and how much margin bookmakers build into the draw.
Key takeaways
- A draw came up in 26.1% of 301,366 league matches from 37 leagues, and 46% of draws were 1-1, 30% 0-0 and 20% 2-2.
- Since 2015/16 the Premier League has had 23.8% draws, while the most were in Argentina (29.6%) and the fewest in the Dutch Eerste Divisie (22.4%).
- Two things the odds already know decide a draw, how even the teams are and how many goals are expected, so an even match with few goals was drawn 30% of the time and one with a clear favourite and many goals 17%.
- Pinnacle's odds price the draw accurately (26.0% implied, 25.9% actual), and backing every draw at closing odds lost 3.6% of stakes.
- At three recreational bookmakers we track the draw carries an 8.5–10.0% margin, above the 6.5–8.2% of the match-result market as a whole, so a draw bet returns £91–92 per £100 on average.
Where the numbers come from
- Matches: 301,366 league matches from 37 domestic leagues, from the 1992/93 season (the Premier League from 1993/94) to 20 October 2026. Result after 90 minutes, without walkovers or results awarded off the pitch.
- Closing odds: Pinnacle 1X2 with the margin removed, 124,772 matches from 29 leagues in 2012–2026, and for 31,828 of them also the over/under 2.5 goals closing odds of one of the large European bookmakers (seasons 2019/20–2025/26).
- Recreational bookmakers' prices: the last pre-match match-result odds at three recreational bookmakers from our readings of their offers (matches of 2–20 October 2026), compared with the margin-free market price from our database for the same matches (684–721 matches per bookmaker).
"Implied chance" is the probability with the margin removed: what the odds say about the match before the bookmaker adds its cut.
How often a draw comes up and with which score
A draw came up in 26.1% of matches, one in four. This is how the draws break down:
| score | share of all matches | share of draws |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 46.0% |
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 29.6% |
| 2-2 | 5.2% | 20.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| 4-4 or higher | 0.1% | 0.5% |
1-1 is the most common score in football overall, not just among draws (more under correct score). It also stays the most likely single score until the favourite's chance of winning reaches about 60%, which is why most of our picks for Skrill Final Score are 1-1. A 0-0 comes up in one match in thirteen.
A draw at half-time is far more common than at full-time: 42% of matches were level after the first half, but in most of them someone settles it after the break. In most leagues the last 15 minutes bring more goals than the first 15, though that does not make late goals a trait of any one team. How matches end after 0-0 and 1-1 at half-time is broken down in our guide to half-time/full-time betting.
Draws by league
The share of draws in matches since the 2015/16 season (from July 2015) in the leagues with the most and the fewest draws, plus England's top two divisions and the rest of Europe's big five:
| league | matches | draws | 0-0 | 1-1 | goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina, Primera División | 4,322 | 29.6% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 2.20 |
| Romania, Superliga | 3,352 | 27.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 2.41 |
| Portugal, Liga Portugal 2 | 3,828 | 27.6% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 2.44 |
| Germany, 2. Bundesliga | 3,459 | 27.1% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 2.88 |
| Brazil, Série A | 4,398 | 27.0% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 2.41 |
| England, Championship | 6,250 | 26.7% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 2.54 |
| Spain, LaLiga | 4,268 | 26.1% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 2.64 |
| France, Ligue 1 | 3,940 | 25.5% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 2.71 |
| Italy, Serie A | 4,249 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 2.73 |
| Germany, Bundesliga | 3,438 | 24.7% | 5.7% | 11.7% | 3.08 |
| England, Premier League | 4,250 | 23.8% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 2.82 |
| Netherlands, Eredivisie | 3,532 | 23.6% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 3.10 |
| Norway, Eliteserien | 2,753 | 23.5% | 5.2% | 11.2% | 3.01 |
| Netherlands, Eerste Divisie | 4,162 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 10.1% | 3.15 |
There are more draws where fewer goals go in: across the 37 leagues the correlation between the draw rate and goals per game is −0.74. In a league with 2.2 goals a game a goalless draw comes up in one match in eight, in a league with more than 3 goals in one in twenty. The Premier League, with 2.82 goals a game, has 23.8% draws; the Championship, with 2.54, has 26.7% (27.4% of its 18,482 matches since 1993/94).
The league ranking is not very stable, though. A league's draw rate in matches from July 2014 to June 2020 and in matches since July 2020 correlate at just 0.23. Apart from leagues with extremely few or extremely many goals, the differences between leagues are largely the chance of one or two seasons.
Draws season by season: one league as an example
How much one league's draw rate moves between seasons, on the example of the Premier League:
| season | matches | draws | 0-0 | goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | 380 | 28.2% | 8.4% | 2.70 |
| 2016/17 | 380 | 22.1% | 7.1% | 2.80 |
| 2017/18 | 380 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 2.68 |
| 2018/19 | 380 | 18.7% | 5.8% | 2.82 |
| 2019/20 | 380 | 24.2% | 5.5% | 2.72 |
| 2020/21 | 380 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 2.69 |
| 2021/22 | 380 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 2.82 |
| 2022/23 | 380 | 22.9% | 6.1% | 2.85 |
| 2023/24 | 380 | 21.6% | 2.9% | 3.28 |
| 2024/25 | 380 | 24.5% | 4.2% | 2.93 |
| 2025/26 | 380 | 27.4% | 7.1% | 2.75 |
Since 1993/94 the Premier League's most drawn season was 1996/97 (31.3%) and its least drawn 2018/19 (18.7%). A gap of 12.6 percentage points between seasons is 48 draws over 380 matches, and with that many matches chance alone moves the rate by a few points either way. A season with many draws therefore says nothing about the next one: 28.2% in 2015/16 was followed by 22.1%, and 26.1% in 2017/18 by the record low of 18.7%. In the 2026/27 season, after 70 matches, 28.6% had been draws.
Are draws becoming less common?
Slightly. In the 31 leagues we have since 2003/04, draws made up 26.7% of matches in 2003/04–2004/05 and 25.5% since mid-2020. Over the same period goals went up (from 2.68 to 2.74 a game), and the Premier League had 25.6% draws since 1993/94 but only 23.8% since 2015/16. Goalless draws fell from 8.5% in 1992–2000 (16 leagues) to 7.0% since mid-2020 (37 leagues). Fewer draws are therefore mainly the result of more goals.
When a draw is most likely
Two things decide a draw: how even the teams are and how many goals we expect. Both are visible in the odds, evenness in the 1X2 odds and the number of goals in the over/under 2.5 odds. This is how draws looked in 31,828 matches with closing odds on both markets (seasons 2019/20–2025/26):
| match | chance of over 2.5 below 45% | 45–55% | 55% and above |
|---|---|---|---|
| even (home and away chances less than 15 points apart) | 30.1% | 27.7% | 27.5% |
| slight favourite (15–35 points) | 30.4% | 27.4% | 25.3% |
| clear favourite (35 points or more) | 27.8% | 22.4% | 17.0% |
In an even match where the odds point to few goals, a draw comes up 30% of the time; in a match with a clear favourite and many goals, 17%. That is almost half as often. The odds know the same thing: the implied chance of a draw in these groups ranged from 18.0% to 30.8%, almost exactly what happened.
El Clásico shows it well. Real Madrid and Barcelona are usually close, but their meetings produce plenty of goals (3.24 on average), so only 21% of 67 league Clásicos since 1993/94 ended level, and since 2015/16 just 3 of 23.
Evenness alone, without the number of goals, gives a narrower spread: with the home and away chances less than 10 percentage points apart a draw came up in 29.4% of 28,627 matches, and with a gap of over 60 points in 13.6%. When the favourite is priced at 2.70 or higher, a draw comes up in 32.5% of matches (more in football betting in numbers).
End of the season: fewer draws
In the last three rounds of the season a draw came up in 23.5% of 19,699 matches, against 26.0% mid-season. There were more goals: 2.89 a game against 2.68. At the end of the season some teams are playing for the title, European places or survival, and a draw is not enough for them (how many points it takes to stay up is worked out in our guide to points needed to avoid relegation). The odds show the same picture, if not fully: in 8,786 matches of the last three rounds with Pinnacle closing odds, the implied chance of a draw was 24.6%, and a draw came up in 23.2%. Backing the draw at the end of the season therefore lost 8.9% of stakes at Pinnacle's odds, against 3.3% in the rest of the season. The gap the other way (betting against the draw) is 1.4 percentage points of probability, less than the bookmaker's margin.
Are draw odds accurate?
Yes, very. In 124,772 matches with Pinnacle closing odds the implied chance of a draw averaged 26.0%, and a draw came up in 25.9%. By draw odds:
| draw odds | matches | implied chance | draw came up | return per £100 at Pinnacle odds | return per £100 at a 7.65% margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| below 3.00 (avg 2.90) | 2,757 | 33.4% | 35.0% | £101.3 | £97.2 |
| 3.00–3.29 | 19,591 | 30.6% | 30.5% | £96.9 | £92.7 |
| 3.30–3.59 | 39,304 | 28.3% | 28.4% | £97.9 | £93.5 |
| 3.60–3.99 | 31,020 | 25.8% | 25.9% | £97.2 | £93.0 |
| 4.00–4.99 | 21,268 | 22.3% | 21.9% | £95.2 | £91.1 |
| 5.00–6.99 | 7,956 | 17.1% | 15.8% | £89.2 | £85.5 |
| 7.00 and above (avg 9.21) | 2,876 | 11.1% | 10.2% | £87.5 | £83.9 |
At the most common draw odds, from 3.00 to 4.99, the odds were accurate to within 0.4 percentage points. The only deviation is high draw odds in matches with a clear favourite: there the draw came up less often than the odds said, and the bet lost 11–13% of stakes even at Pinnacle. The last column is the same matches at odds carrying a 7.65% margin (the average of three recreational bookmakers' median match-result margins): at that price every band loses 3–16%.
No league gave a lasting edge on draws. In 29 leagues with Pinnacle odds the gap between draws and the implied chance never exceeded 1.7 percentage points, and the best return from backing every draw (the Eredivisie, +3.9% over 4,039 matches) is within what chance produces across that many leagues.
What a draw costs at a recreational bookmaker
A bookmaker's margin does not have to be spread evenly over the three results. We compared the last pre-match odds at three recreational bookmakers we track with the margin-free market price from our database for the same matches. That market price gets the draw right: in 39,075 matches from 2023–2026 it implied a draw 25.4% of the time, and a draw came up in 25.5%.
| bookmaker | matches | margin on the match result (1X2) | margin on the draw | median draw odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bookmaker A | 721 | 6.5% | 8.5% | 3.70 |
| bookmaker B | 720 | 8.2% | 9.6% | 3.65 |
| bookmaker C | 684 | 7.9% | 10.0% | 3.65 |
These are medians from matches played between 2 and 20 October 2026. The margin on the whole 1X2 market is the average of the margins on its three results, weighted by their chances. At all three bookmakers the draw's margin is 1.4–2.1 percentage points above that average, which leaves less on the home and away wins. The draw is therefore the dearer part of a match-result bet: at an 8.5–10% margin, a draw bet returns £91–92 per £100 on average.
Draw strategies
- A draw progression (doubling the stake after every match without a draw) does not change the chance of a draw, and a run without one does not make a draw "due". We tested it in our guide to the draw progression system: teams after 15 or more matches without a draw drew 23.4% of the time, exactly what the market expected. Likewise a run of draws does not signal another one, as we show with football streaks.
- The draw as insurance rather than a tip. If you do not want to lose on a draw, there is draw no bet (your stake back on a draw) or double chance 1X or X2.
- Draw tips are tips on an even, low-scoring match. But the bookmaker sees the same match: draw odds of 3.00 instead of 3.60 already carry that information.
- The handicap draw is a separate result in the European handicap: with the home side on −1 (0:1), for example, it is a home win by exactly one goal. It has nothing to do with a drawn match.
Summary
A draw comes up in 26.1% of league matches, and almost half of draws are 1-1. The league matters mainly through the number of goals: from 22.4% draws in the Eerste Divisie to 29.6% in Argentina, with the Premier League at 23.8%. A season with many draws does not predict the next one, and draws are declining slowly as goals go up. Draws are most common in even, low-scoring matches (30%) and least common in matches with a clear favourite and many goals (17%), but the odds know these differences and price the draw very accurately. At the three recreational bookmakers we track the draw also carries an 8.5–10% margin, more than the match-result bet as a whole. Before you back a draw, compare the odds with the market's implied chance: at a typical 7.65% margin, no band of draw odds came out ahead.
FAQ
How often does a football match end in a draw?
In 301,366 league matches from 37 leagues a draw came up 26.1% of the time, roughly one match in four. Since 2015/16, individual leagues range from 22.4% to 29.6%.
What is the most common draw score?
1-1. It accounts for 46% of all draws and 12.0% of all matches. 0-0 makes up 30% of draws (7.7% of matches), and 2-2 20% of draws (5.2% of matches).
Which league has the most draws?
Since the 2015/16 season the most draws came in Argentina's Primera División (29.6%), Romania's Superliga (27.7%) and Portugal's Liga Portugal 2 (27.6%), the fewest in the Dutch Eerste Divisie (22.4%). The Premier League had 23.8%, the Championship 26.7%.
How many Premier League matches end in a draw?
Since 2015/16, 23.8% of 4,250 Premier League matches have ended level, with 0-0 in 6.3% and 1-1 in 10.9% of matches; since 1993/94 the figure is 25.6%. Its rate also swings from season to season, from 18.7% (2018/19) to 31.3% (1996/97).
Is betting on draws profitable?
There is no evidence for it in the data. Pinnacle's odds price the draw accurately, and backing every draw at closing odds lost 3.6% of stakes. At three recreational bookmakers we track the draw carries an 8.5–10% margin, above the match-result market as a whole, so a draw bet returns £91–92 per £100 on average.
Which matches produce the most draws?
Even, low-scoring matches: a draw came up in 30% of them, against 17% in matches with a clear favourite and many goals. In the last three rounds of the season there are fewer draws, 23.5% against 26.0% mid-season.