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Betting with your head

Bankroll rules, a betting log, the traps of the mind, staking systems and tipster scams, and where to get help.

10 rules to protect your bankroll
Stakes of 1–2% of your bankroll, a daily loss limit of 5–10%, a daily win limit, regular withdrawals and the signs that you are losing control.
Betting tracker spreadsheet: yield, ROI, break-even
Which columns to keep, how to work out yield and ROI, why break-even is 1 / odds (62.5% at 1.60) and why 100 bets prove little.
Betting psychology
The gambler's fallacy, chasing losses, confirmation bias and other thinking traps, tested on 104,000 matches from our database.
Draw progression system: why it loses
1,797 runs of 15+ matches without a draw in 300k matches: what such a run costs a draw progression and why the system loses.
Tipster scams
Fixed matches, "sure tips", paid groups and fake bet slips: how the scams work, why 28 in 1,000 tipsters look brilliant by chance and what to do.