Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente – Guimaraes- Match Result: GuimaraesOutsider with better xGxG difference +0.8, opponent −0.1From odds 37%
xG tips
Matches today, tomorrow and the day after where recent xG says something different from the odds
Today · Monday
xG and the oddsFrom odds- Match Result: GuimaraesOutsider with better xGGil Vicente – GuimaraesLiga PortugalxG difference +0.8, opponent −0.137%
Tomorrow · Tuesday
xG and the oddsFrom odds- Match Result: OldhamUnlucky teamNorthampton – OldhamLeague TwoGoal difference −0.9, xG difference +0.131%
Wednesday
xG and the oddsFrom odds- Match Result: VascoOutsider with better xGAthletico-PR – VascoBrasileiro Serie AxG difference +0.8, opponent −0.129%
Today · Monday
Tomorrow · Tuesday
League Two
Northampton – Oldham- Match Result: OldhamUnlucky teamGoal difference −0.9, xG difference +0.1From odds 31%
Wednesday
Brasileiro Serie A
Athletico-PR – Vasco- Match Result: VascoOutsider with better xGxG difference +0.8, opponent −0.1From odds 29%
Frequently asked questions
What are xG tips?
Matches where the teams' xG over their last 10 matches says something different from the odds. xG comes from our own shot model, without penalties, and the odds are the market without its margin. We show averages only, never one match's xG.
How do you pick the matches?
Three rules, the same for every league. More goals: fair odds on over 2.5 goals of at least 2.22, and the teams' xG at least 0.5 goals above what the market expects. Outsider with better xG: fair odds of at least 2.50, and an xG difference per match at least 0.75 better than the opponent's. Unlucky team: fair odds of at least 3.00, and a goal difference per match at least 1 below the xG difference.
Are xG tips a sure thing?
No. The odds already know xG, so a gap is not a bookmaker's mistake, and the team with the higher xG loses one match in four. This is information about the match, not a way to make money, and after the margin betting on such gaps usually costs you.