Free bets: what a free bet is, what it is worth and which odds to use
A free bet is a bet funded by the bookmaker in which the stake is not returned: if it wins, you get only the winnings, the free bet amount × (odds − 1). That is why a £100 free bet is not worth £100. On 117,057 matches from 13 leagues we found that at odds of 1.50–1.99 it returns £40 on average, at 3.00–3.99 about £64, and above odds of 4 its value grows by only a few pounds. We show which odds to use it at, whether an accumulator pays, and how much is left when you hedge it at a bookmaker or lay it on an exchange.
Key takeaways
- 1
A £100 free bet at odds of 1.50–1.99 returns £40 on average and at 3.00–3.99 as much as £64, because the stake is not returned and the net winnings grow with the odds.
- 2
Above odds of 4 the value grows by only a few pounds (£67–70), because bookmakers cut the odds of outsiders the most.
- 3
Long odds mean a rare win, as a free bet at 3.00–3.99 is lost 73% of the time and at 6.00–9.99 89% of the time.
- 4
An acca of three favourites at combined odds of 4–10 returns £69–72, £1–2 more than a single bet at the same odds.
- 5
Hedged at a second bookmaker, a £100 free bet locks in about £53 at odds of 2.50 and £61 at 5.00, and laid on an exchange in our example £75.68.
What is a free bet?
A free bet is a bet the bookmaker pays for as part of a promotion. It does not land in your balance as cash: you get it as a separate token that you can place on a sports bet under the conditions in the terms.
Free bets most often come from:
- welcome offers, sometimes for signing up alone, as a no deposit bonus,
- refunds on a losing bet, that is risk-free bets and cashback paid as a free bet,
- missions and challenges, for example for placing a few bets in a week,
- occasions such as a player's birthday, a Champions League final or a World Cup.
A free bet is not the same as bonus funds, which usually come with a wagering requirement: an amount you have to bet before you can withdraw them.
How free bet winnings are calculated
In a standard free bet the stake is taken off the winnings. When it wins you get only the net winnings, without the free bet amount. A cash bet pays stake × odds, stake included (more in betting odds explained):
| £100 cash bet | £100 free bet | |
|---|---|---|
| odds 2.00 | £200 payout (£100 profit) | £100 |
| odds 3.00 | £300 payout (£200 profit) | £200 |
| odds 5.00 | £500 payout (£400 profit) | £400 |
Terms often call this a "stake not returned" (SNR) free bet. Less often you come across a free bet with the stake returned (SR). It then settles like an ordinary bet, and it is worth more. Always check in the terms which model it is.
What a free bet is really worth: data from 117,000 matches
The average value of a free bet is the winnings if it lands times the chance that it lands. If the odds were fair, a £100 free bet at odds of 3.00 would be worth £100 × 2 × 1/3 = £66.67. The bookmaker builds a margin into the odds, though, so in practice it comes out lower.
We checked this on real odds and results. We took the average odds of six bookmakers on each 1X2 result in 117,057 matches from 13 European leagues (2000–2026, 351,171 bets) and worked out how much a £100 free bet placed at given odds would return on average.
| odds | bets | hit rate | £100 free bet returns on average | free bet lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.49 | 16,342 | 74.2% | £24 | 25.8% |
| 1.50–1.99 | 43,205 | 54.1% | £40 | 45.9% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 49,870 | 42.0% | £52 | 58.0% |
| 2.50–2.99 | 41,017 | 33.1% | £57 | 66.9% |
| 3.00–3.99 | 137,293 | 27.1% | £64 | 72.9% |
| 4.00–5.99 | 42,759 | 18.4% | £67 | 81.6% |
| 6.00–9.99 | 15,464 | 11.2% | £70 | 88.8% |
| 10.00 and above | 5,221 | 5.0% | £59 | 95.0% |
Three things follow from this table:
- Short odds waste a free bet. At odds of 1.30 you win three times out of four, but you only win £30, so on average £24 of the £100 is left.
- From odds of 3 to 4 the value grows more slowly, and above 4 it almost stands still. The formula alone would give £73 at odds of 4.00–5.99 and £80 at 6.00–9.99. The data show £67 and £70, because bookmakers cut the odds of outsiders the most. This effect, and how the margin is spread across the odds, is explained in how bookmakers make money.
- Above odds of 10 the result is uncertain. Across the whole archive it is £59, in the seasons from 2019/20 as much as £71. With a 5% hit rate, a few wins more or fewer move the average a lot.
Where these numbers come from
The matches are from the football-data archive: the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two, LaLiga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Eredivisie, the Primeira Liga, the Belgian Pro League and the Turkish Süper Lig. The odds are the average of six bookmakers (at least three per result), with a median 1X2 margin of 7.2%, similar to the recreational bookmakers we track.
At a bookmaker with a low margin a free bet is worth more. On Pinnacle's closing odds (a 2.8% margin) a £100 free bet at odds of 3.00–3.99 returned £69 on average, at 4.00–5.99 £74 and at 6.00–9.99 £79. The difference between these numbers and the table is the cost of the margin.
The seasons from 2019/20 (31,429 matches) give almost the same: £41 at odds of 1.50–1.99, £66 at 3.00–3.99 and £69 at 4.00–5.99.
Which odds to use a free bet at
A free bet returns the most at odds of about 3 and above: £64 at 3.00–3.99, £67 at 4.00–5.99 and £70 at 6.00–9.99. Above odds of 4 you gain little, while the risk of coming away with nothing grows.
- Odds of 3.00–3.99 are a sensible middle. The free bet returns £64 on average and wins one time in four.
- Long odds mean a rare win. At odds of 3, the chance that none of five free bets lands is 17%. With ten free bets it is only 3%. One free bet is a lottery; a run of free bets gets close to the average in the table.
- The market does not matter, the odds do. At odds of 3.00–3.99 a free bet on the home side returned £64.30, on the draw £64.60 and on the away side £62.80.
- The minimum odds in the terms rarely get in the way. Thresholds such as 1.50 or 2.00 sit below the best-value range anyway.
If you would rather have a fixed amount than an average, you can hedge the free bet. That is a separate strategy, described below.
Free bets on an accumulator
Many free bets can be placed on an accumulator. We checked whether a slip of favourites returns more than a single bet at the same combined odds. We drew 2 million slips of three selections at odds of 1.40–2.19 (each from a different match) and compared them with single bets at the same odds.
The bookmaker's margin multiplies on every leg of an acca, and yet a slip of three favourites came out £1–2 better than one outsider at the same odds. Favourites are priced more fairly than outsiders, and that is enough to make up for the margin on the two extra legs. It is a small difference. Go for an acca when the terms allow it and you cannot find long enough odds on a single selection.
Hedging a free bet: a fixed amount instead of a lottery
A free bet can be turned into a fixed amount. You place it on one result and cover the opposite with cash: a bet on the other result at a second bookmaker, or a lay of the same result on a betting exchange. This is what bonus hunting rests on, and what UK punters call matched betting. The strategies behind it are worked through in Surebet Monitor's advanced arbitrage strategies.
Hedging at a second bookmaker
The hedge stake is the free bet's winnings divided by the hedge odds, £100 × (odds − 1) / hedge odds, and what you lock in is the winnings less that stake. With a 5% margin on the pair of odds (the free bet's and the hedge's), a £100 free bet gives:
The longer the free bet's odds, the more you lock in, because less of its value goes on the hedge: about £53 at 2.50 and about £61 at 5.00. Above odds of about 4 the amount barely grows. Once the free bet is already running, the hedge & cash-out calculator works out the stake, and how a hedge is calculated is explained in our guide on how to hedge a bet.
Laying a free bet on an exchange
On a betting exchange you can lay a result, that is, bet against it. The lay price is usually close to the bookmaker's back price, so a free bet keeps more of its value than with a second bookmaker. For a stake-not-returned free bet the lay stake is:
lay stake = free bet × (back odds − 1) / (lay odds − commission)
An example: a £100 free bet at odds of 5.00, laid at 5.20 on an exchange that charges 2% commission on net winnings. The lay stake is 100 × 4 / (5.20 − 0.02) = £77.22, and the liability, what you pay out on the exchange if your selection wins, is 77.22 × 4.20 = £324.32.
| Result | Free bet | Lay bet | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Your selection wins | +£400.00 | −£324.32 | +£75.68 |
| Your selection loses | £0 | +£75.68 (£77.22 less £1.54 commission) | +£75.68 |
The free bet locks in £75.68 whatever happens, against £61.02 hedged at a second bookmaker at the same odds. With 5% commission the same lay keeps £73.79. Two things to watch: you need the liability, here £324.32, in your exchange account before you place the lay, and every bit of gap between the back and lay odds costs part of the value. Bookmakers also tend to restrict accounts that only take promotions, as Surebet Monitor explains in bookmaker limits.
Hedged at a second bookmaker, a free bet gives less than the average in the table (£53 at odds of 2.50 against £57 in the 2.50–2.99 band, £61 at 5.00 against £67 in the 4.00–5.99 band), but without the risk of getting nothing. A lay can give more than that average, but only when the lay odds are as close to the free bet's as in our example.
What to watch for in free bet terms
The terms of a free bet most often include:
- minimum odds, for example 1.50 or 2.00, sometimes for each leg of an acca separately,
- an expiry date, after which an unused free bet is lost,
- the markets and bet types allowed: singles, accas, system bets, in-play bets, bet builders,
- no cash-out on a free bet slip,
- maximum winnings from a free bet,
- single use: you usually place a free bet whole on one slip, without splitting it,
- a requirement to settle the bet before the promotion ends.
When the winnings from a free bet go to a bonus balance rather than your cash balance, they also come with a wagering requirement.
Common mistakes with free bets
- Treating a free bet as cash. A £100 free bet is worth £24 to £70 on average, depending on the odds.
- Using odds that are too short. At odds below 1.50 a free bet returns £24 of £100 on average.
- Using very long odds "because it's free anyway". At odds of 6.00–9.99 a free bet wins roughly once in nine tries, and on average returns only £3 more than at 4.00–5.99.
- Missing the deadline. A free bet that has expired is worth £0.
- Not reading the terms, for example whether the stake is returned, whether the slip can be an acca and whether the winnings are paid as cash.
Summary
A free bet is a bet in which the stake is not returned, so a £100 free bet is not worth £100. On data from 117,000 matches it returns £40 on average at odds of 1.50–1.99, £64 at 3.00–3.99 and £67–70 at odds from 4 to 10. The most sensible use is at odds of about 3 to 6, on a single selection or on an acca of favourites. A fixed amount comes only from hedging: about £53 at odds of 2.50 and £61 at 5.00 against a second bookmaker, and £75.68 in our example of a lay at 5.20 on an exchange. Before you place it, check the minimum odds, the deadline, the bet types allowed and whether the stake is returned.
FAQ
A free bet is a bet a bookmaker gives you in a promotion, for example in a welcome offer, as a refund on a losing bet or for completing a mission. You place it like an ordinary bet, but when it wins you usually get only the net winnings, without the stake.
Not in a standard free bet: the stake is taken off the winnings. A £100 free bet at odds of 3.00 pays £200, not £300 as a cash bet would. The exception is a free bet with the stake returned, which the terms will say.
Odds of about 3 to 6. In our data a £100 free bet at odds of 3.00–3.99 returned £64 on average, and at 4.00–5.99 £67. Longer odds add almost nothing, and the free bet is lost more often. If you hedge it, odds of about 4 and above lock in the most.
Pick the free bet when you build your slip, check that the slip meets the terms (minimum odds, bet type, deadline) and stake the whole free bet amount. Odds of about 3 to 6 return the most, or an acca of a few favourites if the terms allow it.
Usually yes, unless the terms limit the free bet to singles. In our simulation an acca of three favourites (odds of 1.40–2.19) returned £69–72 of £100, £1–2 more than a single bet at the same combined odds.
You cannot withdraw the free bet itself: you can only place it. What you can withdraw is the winnings from it. They usually go to your cash balance, but some promotions pay them as bonus funds, which have to be wagered first.
Not in the UK: the Gambling Commission states that customers' gambling winnings are tax-free, whatever the amount, from a free bet or a cash bet. In other countries the rules differ, so check the ones where you live.
At some bookmakers, yes: a birthday free bet is one of the occasions promotions use. It works like any other free bet, with minimum odds and an expiry date, often a short one, so check the terms on the day you get it.