Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Alcala Gurri vs Andrade 2:0: result and our tips

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Max Alcala GurriATP #132Elo 1802clay 1806
2:0final6:4 6:2
Andres AndradeATP #224Elo 1799clay 1728

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: Alcala GurriWon70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Alcala Gurri won 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Won62%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 56% → with the players' profiles 62%

    Andrade: 4 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Won44%

Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 44%

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Alcala Gurri 13 of 20, Andrade 8 of 20 (tour average 41%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Max Alcala Gurri74%
Andres Andrade26%

Elo: M. Alcala Gurri 61% · A. Andrade 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Alcala Gurri51%
2:1 M. Alcala Gurri23%
2:1 A. Andrade13%
2:0 A. Andrade14%

First set

Max Alcala Gurri68%
Andres Andrade33%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.570%30%76%
18.561%39%68%
19.553%47%59%
20.548%52%52%
21.541%59%47%
22.537%63%40%
23.535%65%36%

Sample: 3,328 matches

Games handicap

Max Alcala Gurri −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Max Alcala GurriAndres Andrade
1Aces0
3Double faults3
79%First serves in51%
71%First-serve points won67%
33%Second-serve points won42%
4/6Break points converted1/3
8/9Service games held5/9
63%Service points won55%
45%Return points won37%
60Total points won50

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. Alcala GurriTourA. Andrade
Service points won61%62%60%
Return points won47%38%41%
Service games held73%76%72%
Breaks of serve43%24%30%
Aces per service game0.100.25
Double faults per game0.240.33
Sets with a tie-break8%12%
Tie-breaks won5/913/19
Wins in straight sets74%74%
Matches in the sample4967

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Max Alcala Gurri

Andres Andrade

Elo over the last year

Max Alcala GurriAndres Andrade

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. Alcala GurriA. Andrade
Hard court0–10%27–1761%
Clay35–1373%12–957%
Grass0–00–20%

Head to head

They have not met yet.