ATP Tokyo500Finalhardbest of three sets

Alcaraz vs Lehečka 2:0: result and our tips

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Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2413hard 2355
2:0final7:6(4) 6:4
Jiří LehečkaATP #16Elo 2111hard 2078

Our tips

Our tip
Alcaraz to winWon77%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 77%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Alcaraz: 8 wins in a row; Alcaraz won 9 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
A third setLost32%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Carlos Alcaraz77%
Jiří Lehečka23%

Elo: C. Alcaraz 83% · J. Lehečka 17%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Alcaraz55%
2:1 C. Alcaraz22%
2:1 J. Lehečka11%
2:0 J. Lehečka13%

First set

Carlos Alcaraz71%
Jiří Lehečka29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.579%21%72%
19.570%30%64%
20.561%39%56%
21.553%47%51%
22.547%53%43%
23.540%60%37%
24.535%65%36%

Sample: 3,353 matches

Games handicap

Carlos Alcaraz −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 34%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Carlos AlcarazJiří Lehečka
4Aces7
1Double faults0
67%First serves in63%
85%First-serve points won76%
68%Second-serve points won54%
2/4Break points converted1/3
10/11Service games held9/11
79%Service points won68%
32%Return points won21%
69Total points won60

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. AlcarazTourJ. Lehečka
Service points won67%62%68%
Return points won41%38%35%
Service games held87%76%87%
Breaks of serve30%24%18%
Aces per service game0.360.66
Double faults per game0.200.13
Sets with a tie-break20%24%
Tie-breaks won12/2116/33
Wins in straight sets71%62%
Matches in the sample4055

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Carlos Alcaraz

Jiří Lehečka

Elo over the last year

Carlos AlcarazJiří Lehečka

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. AlcarazJ. Lehečka
Hard court29–585%22–1461%
Clay5–183%6–460%
Grass0–06–367%

Head to head

C. Alcaraz 3–1 J. Lehečka

  • 02/09/25Winner: Carlos Alcaraz6:4 6:2 6:4
  • 22/06/25Winner: Carlos Alcaraz7:5 6:7 6:2
  • 20/02/25Winner: Jiří Lehečka3:6 6:3 4:6
  • 22/06/23Winner: Carlos Alcaraz6:2 6:3

Road through the tournament

Carlos Alcaraz

Jiří Lehečka

See also