ATP Lyon250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Altmaier vs Droguet 2:1: result and our tips

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Daniel AltmaierATP #65Elo 1880hard 1812
2:1final5:7 7:6(4) 7:6(3)
Titouan DroguetATP #69Elo 1994hard 1963

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won66%

Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 66%

Droguet: 13 matches in a row over 20.5 games; Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Altmaier 11 of 20, Droguet 17 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: DroguetWon61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Altmaier lost the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Droguet won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

  • Match Winner: DroguetLost66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 66%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Droguet won 9 of the last 10 matches; Droguet: 5 wins in a row

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 38%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Altmaier 7 of 20, Droguet 11 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniel Altmaier34%
Titouan Droguet66%

Elo: D. Altmaier 30% · T. Droguet 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Altmaier21%
2:1 D. Altmaier15%
2:1 T. Droguet23%
2:0 T. Droguet42%

First set

Daniel Altmaier39%
Titouan Droguet61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.552%48%46%
23.544%56%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%63%35%

Sample: 5,348 matches

Games handicap

Titouan Droguet −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes46%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 38 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Daniel AltmaierTitouan Droguet
19Aces10
4Double faults1
64%First serves in71%
77%First-serve points won79%
61%Second-serve points won36%
1/3Break points converted2/7
16/18Service games held17/18
71%Service points won66%
34%Return points won29%
125Total points won115

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. AltmaierTourT. Droguet
Service points won62%62%65%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held76%76%82%
Breaks of serve19%24%23%
Aces per service game0.560.66
Double faults per game0.240.19
Sets with a tie-break17%21%
Tie-breaks won10/2327/40
Wins in straight sets56%56%
Matches in the sample5778

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniel Altmaier

Titouan Droguet

Elo over the last year

Daniel AltmaierTitouan Droguet

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. AltmaierT. Droguet
Hard court8–1535%36–1373%
Clay13–1350%15–963%
Grass4–450%3–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.