Alves vs Fernandez 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: M. Alves 59% · B. Fernandez 41%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 59% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 3,901 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 27%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 21.5out · 25 games
- Games handicapcovered
Match stats
| Mateus Alves | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 4 |
| 3 | Double faults | 6 |
| 62% | First serves in | 59% |
| 71% | First-serve points won | 72% |
| 65% | Second-serve points won | 41% |
| 3/11 | Break points converted | 1/3 |
| 12/13 | Service games held | 9/12 |
| 68% | Service points won | 59% |
| 41% | Return points won | 32% |
| 93 | Total points won | 79 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Alves | Tour | B. Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 59% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 73% | 76% | 71% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.45 | 0.25 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.28 | 0.35 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 7% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 2/4 | 1/9 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 82% | 50% | |
| Matches in the sample | 27 | 34 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Mateus Alves
- 05/10/26LJose Pereira#778Challenger Antofagasta · Q23:6 3:6
- 04/10/26WBautista de la PenaChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:2 6:1
- 01/10/26LGonzalo Villanueva#323Challenger Curitiba · R162:6 3:6
- 29/09/26WJose Pereira#778Challenger Curitiba · R326:2 1:6 6:4
- 13/07/26LJan Kumstat#191Challenger Bunschoten · Q23:6 3:6
- 12/07/26WFons van Sambeek#997Challenger Bunschoten · Q17:6 6:1
- 06/05/26LHernan Casanova#411Challenger Santos · R327:6 1:6 2:6
- 12/04/26LBruno Kuzuhara#683Challenger Tallahassee · Q16:4 4:6 2:6
- 05/04/26LKarl Poling#459Challenger Mexico City · Q13:6 1:4
- 31/03/26LJuan Pablo Ficovich#366Challenger San Luis Potosi · R320:6 2:6
Bruno Fernandez
- 11/10/26WNicolas DonosoChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q16:0 6:1
- 04/10/26LBernardo Munk MesaChallenger Antofagasta · Q14:6 3:6
- 30/09/26LLautaro Midon#206Challenger Curitiba · R162:6 5:7
- 29/09/26WWilson Leite#689Challenger Curitiba · R326:4 1:6 6:2
- 28/09/26LVictor Hugo Remondy Pagotto#806Challenger Curitiba · Q26:7 6:4 3:6
- 27/09/26WFederico ZeballosChallenger Curitiba · Q13:6 7:5 6:4
- 22/09/26LFranco Roncadelli#265Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R322:6 0:6
- 21/09/26LTomas Farjat#795Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q24:6 2:6
- 20/09/26WDante PaganiChallenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q16:4 6:4
- 06/07/26LJuan Pablo Varillas#200Challenger Bogota · R326:2 3:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Alves | B. Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 1–233% | 0–0 |
| Clay | 10–1442% | 14–2041% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Mateus Alves
First match in this tournament.
Bruno Fernandez
- 11/10/26WNicolas DonosoChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q16:0 6:1