Challenger CaliChallenger 75Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Alves vs Munk Mesa 2:0: result and our tips

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Mateus AlvesATP #399Elo 1491clay 1510
2:0final6:4 6:3
Bernardo Munk MesaElo 1479clay 1522

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mateus Alves80%
Bernardo Munk Mesa20%

Elo: M. Alves 48% · B. Munk Mesa 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Alves57%
2:1 M. Alves22%
2:1 B. Munk Mesa10%
2:0 B. Munk Mesa11%

First set

Mateus Alves73%
Bernardo Munk Mesa27%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 57%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%26%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.554%46%59%
20.548%52%52%
21.543%57%47%
22.537%63%40%
23.533%67%36%

Sample: 2,432 matches

Games handicap

Mateus Alves −4.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Mateus AlvesBernardo Munk Mesa
7Aces2
1Double faults0
68%First serves in62%
81%First-serve points won65%
50%Second-serve points won75%
2/2Break points converted0/3
10/10Service games held7/9
71%Service points won69%
31%Return points won29%
58Total points won47

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. AlvesTourB. Munk Mesa
Service points won60%62%61%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held73%76%72%
Breaks of serve22%24%23%
Aces per service game0.430.33
Double faults per game0.280.32
Sets with a tie-break7%6%
Tie-breaks won2/41/1
Wins in straight sets70%33%
Matches in the sample267

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mateus Alves

  • 14/10/26LThiago Seyboth Wild#111Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R323:6 6:7
  • 12/10/26WBruno Fernandez#554Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q26:1 3:6 6:3
  • 05/10/26LJose Pereira#742Challenger Antofagasta · Q23:6 3:6
  • 04/10/26WBautista de la PenaChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:2 6:1
  • 01/10/26LGonzalo Villanueva#315Challenger Curitiba · R162:6 3:6
  • 29/09/26WJose Pereira#742Challenger Curitiba · R326:2 1:6 6:4
  • 13/07/26LJan Kumstat#192Challenger Bunschoten · Q23:6 3:6
  • 12/07/26WFons van SambeekChallenger Bunschoten · Q17:6 6:1
  • 06/05/26LHernan Casanova#394Challenger Santos · R327:6 1:6 2:6
  • 12/04/26LBruno Kuzuhara#700Challenger Tallahassee · Q16:4 4:6 2:6

Bernardo Munk Mesa

  • 12/10/26LHugo Dellien#118Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R323:6 5:7
  • 06/10/26LJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva#188Challenger Antofagasta · R322:6 2:6
  • 05/10/26WHernan Casanova#394Challenger Antofagasta · Q26:1 2:6 6:4
  • 04/10/26WBruno Fernandez#554Challenger Antofagasta · Q16:4 6:3
  • 19/07/26LDominik Palan#620Challenger Segovia · Q13:6 4:6
  • 13/07/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#405Challenger Pozoblanco · Q26:3 4:6 2:6
  • 12/07/26WJohn Echeverria#523Challenger Pozoblanco · Q13:6 7:6 6:4
  • 21/07/25LAbdullah Shelbayh#306Challenger Segovia · Q26:4 1:6 4:6
  • 20/07/25WAlex Martinez#384Challenger Segovia · Q17:5 3:2

Elo over the last year

Mateus AlvesBernardo Munk Mesa

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. AlvesB. Munk Mesa
Hard court1–233%1–233%
Clay9–1439%2–250%

Head to head

They have not met yet.