ATP Lyon250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Arnaldi vs Musetti 0:2: result and our tips

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Matteo ArnaldiATP #36Elo 1913hard 1858
0:2final1:6 4:6
Lorenzo MusettiATP #26Elo 2074hard 2018

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: MusettiWon62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Musetti won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches; Arnaldi lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Musetti won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: MusettiWon67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Musetti won 3 of 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matteo Arnaldi33%
Lorenzo Musetti67%

Elo: M. Arnaldi 28% · L. Musetti 72%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Arnaldi20%
2:1 M. Arnaldi14%
2:1 L. Musetti23%
2:0 L. Musetti43%

First set

Matteo Arnaldi38%
Lorenzo Musetti62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%68%
20.562%38%60%
21.557%43%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.541%59%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.536%64%35%

Sample: 5,257 matches

Games handicap

Lorenzo Musetti −2.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Matteo ArnaldiLorenzo Musetti
0Aces5
1Double faults2
58%First serves in70%
71%First-serve points won76%
32%Second-serve points won56%
0/6Break points converted4/5
5/9Service games held8/8
55%Service points won70%
30%Return points won45%
49Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. ArnaldiTourL. Musetti
Service points won60%62%64%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held74%76%81%
Breaks of serve23%24%24%
Aces per service game0.390.39
Double faults per game0.290.21
Sets with a tie-break22%11%
Tie-breaks won14/265/12
Wins in straight sets24%67%
Matches in the sample4144

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matteo Arnaldi

Lorenzo Musetti

Elo over the last year

Matteo ArnaldiLorenzo Musetti

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. ArnaldiL. Musetti
Hard court5–1131%21–1362%
Clay14–767%6–460%
Grass2–250%0–0

Head to head

M. Arnaldi 0–4 L. Musetti

  • 27/07/26Winner: Lorenzo Musetti0:6 1:3
  • 14/01/25Winner: Lorenzo Musetti6:7 6:4 6:7 3:6
  • 19/07/23Winner: Lorenzo Musetti3:6 6:4 6:7
  • 14/05/23Winner: Lorenzo Musetti4:6 4:6

See also