WTA OsakaWTA 250Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Badosa vs Ruzic 1:2: result and our tips

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Paula BadosaWTA #61Elo 1936hard 1914
1:2final6:3 4:6 3:6
Antonia RuzicWTA #91Elo 1706hard 1683

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ruzic: 10 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: BadosaWon68%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Badosa won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Ruzic lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Won39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Badosa 10 of 20, Ruzic 9 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Paula Badosa73%
Antonia Ruzic27%

Elo: P. Badosa 79% · A. Ruzic 21%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Badosa51%
2:1 P. Badosa21%
2:1 A. Ruzic13%
2:0 A. Ruzic15%

First set

Paula Badosa68%
Antonia Ruzic32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%72%
18.566%34%64%
19.558%42%56%
20.551%49%49%
21.545%55%44%
22.539%61%38%
23.535%65%34%

Sample: 1,792 matches

Games handicap

Paula Badosa −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Paula BadosaAntonia Ruzic
11Aces2
7Double faults5
51%First serves in63%
62%First-serve points won68%
42%Second-serve points won43%
4/10Break points converted5/15
9/14Service games held10/14
52%Service points won59%
41%Return points won48%
87Total points won100

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. BadosaTourA. Ruzic
Service points won57%56%55%
Return points won45%44%43%
Service games held67%63%63%
Breaks of serve37%37%35%
Aces per service game0.350.15
Double faults per game0.590.28
Sets with a tie-break13%5%
Tie-breaks won7/141/7
Wins in straight sets74%50%
Matches in the sample4755

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Paula Badosa

Antonia Ruzic

Elo over the last year

Paula BadosaAntonia Ruzic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. BadosaA. Ruzic
Hard court12–1152%18–1949%
Clay13–668%3–633%
Grass2–340%5–456%

Head to head

P. Badosa 1–0 A. Ruzic

  • 26/09/25Winner: Paula Badosa6:3 7:6

See also