Challenger AntofagastaChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Barrena vs Pucinelli de Almeida 0:2: result and our tips

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Alex BarrenaATP #224Elo 1721clay 1724
0:2final5:7 3:6
Matheus Pucinelli de AlmeidaATP #255Elo 1743clay 1756

Our tips

Our tip
No third setWon61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Barrena: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Pucinelli de Almeida to win 2-0Won35%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Pucinelli de Almeida won 2-0 in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alex Barrena45%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida55%

Elo: A. Barrena 45% · M. Pucinelli de Almeida 55%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Barrena26%
2:1 A. Barrena18%
2:1 M. Pucinelli de Almeida21%
2:0 M. Pucinelli de Almeida35%

First set

Alex Barrena45%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%77%
18.566%34%69%
19.558%42%60%
20.553%47%53%
21.546%54%48%
22.542%58%41%
23.540%60%37%

Sample: 4,608 matches

Games handicap

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 28%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.0in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Alex BarrenaMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida
0Aces1
3Double faults1
67%First serves in68%
58%First-serve points won61%
50%Second-serve points won70%
2/5Break points converted4/4
6/10Service games held9/11
56%Service points won64%
36%Return points won44%
56Total points won70

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. BarrenaTourM. Pucinelli de Almeida
Service points won58%62%61%
Return points won40%38%44%
Service games held69%76%74%
Breaks of serve29%24%35%
Aces per service game0.210.19
Double faults per game0.220.25
Sets with a tie-break13%10%
Tie-breaks won7/195/13
Wins in straight sets59%59%
Matches in the sample6552

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alex Barrena

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Elo over the last year

Alex BarrenaMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. BarrenaM. Pucinelli de Almeida
Hard court0–20%3–443%
Clay32–3052%29–1664%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

A. Barrena 1–2 M. Pucinelli de Almeida

  • 28/01/26Winner: Alex Barrena1:6 7:6 6:4
  • 08/10/24Winner: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida3:6 3:6
  • 27/09/23Winner: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida1:6 3:6