WTA 125 RoveretoRound of 32hardbest of three sets

Barthel vs Bronzetti 1:2: result and our tips

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Mona BarthelWTA #180Elo 1618hard 1605
1:2final6:3 1:6 0:6
Lucia BronzettiWTA #135Elo 1658hard 1586

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: BarthelWon57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Barthel: 5 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mona Barthel57%
Lucia Bronzetti43%

Elo: M. Barthel 53% · L. Bronzetti 47%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Barthel38%
2:1 M. Barthel19%
2:1 L. Bronzetti19%
2:0 L. Bronzetti24%

First set

Mona Barthel57%
Lucia Bronzetti43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%60%
19.559%41%52%
20.553%47%46%
21.549%51%41%
22.542%58%36%
23.538%62%33%
24.536%65%31%

Sample: 2,376 matches

Games handicap

Mona Barthel −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 21%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mona BarthelLucia Bronzetti
3Aces3
14Double faults2
71%First serves in74%
43%First-serve points won69%
45%Second-serve points won39%
2/7Break points converted6/9
5/11Service games held9/11
44%Service points won61%
39%Return points won56%
57Total points won82

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BarthelTourL. Bronzetti
Service points won57%56%55%
Return points won46%44%46%
Service games held65%63%60%
Breaks of serve43%37%40%
Aces per service game0.350.15
Double faults per game0.610.26
Sets with a tie-break9%10%
Tie-breaks won0/78/12
Wins in straight sets61%62%
Matches in the sample3354

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mona Barthel

  • 20/09/26LSamira de Stefano#185WTA 125 Ljubljana · F6:3 1:6 5:7
  • 19/09/26WNoemi Basiletti#241WTA 125 Ljubljana · SF6:4 6:0
  • 18/09/26WMia Ristic#183WTA 125 Ljubljana · QF6:2 6:2
  • 16/09/26WFrancesca Jones#104WTA 125 Ljubljana · R166:0 6:4
  • 15/09/26WRadka Zelnickova#349WTA 125 Ljubljana · R326:0 6:4
  • 08/09/26LFiona Ferro#105WTA 125 Montreux · R323:6 4:6
  • 26/08/26LFrancesca Jones#104WTA US Open · Q26:7 6:1 2:6
  • 25/08/26WWhitney Osuigwe#229WTA US Open · Q16:3 7:5
  • 06/08/26LElizara Yaneva#146WTA 125 Warsaw · QF4:6 6:2 6:7
  • 05/08/26WMartyna Kubka#166WTA 125 Warsaw · R167:5 6:4

Lucia Bronzetti

Elo over the last year

Mona BarthelLucia Bronzetti

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BarthelL. Bronzetti
Hard court10–663%3–1023%
Clay8–753%24–1463%
Grass0–20%2–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.