Challenger VillenaChallenger 125Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Barton vs Samuel 2:0: result and our tips

·

Hynek BartonATP #288Elo 1663hard 1644
2:0final7:6(11) 6:3
Toby SamuelATP #100Elo 1925hard 1933

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost74%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Barton: 9 matches in a row without a tie-break; No tie-break in recent matches: Barton 17 of 20, Samuel 14 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Other tips

  • Set Betting: Samuel 2-0Lost63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Barton lost 0-2 in 7 of the last 20 matches, Samuel won 2-0 in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

  • Total Games: Over 17.5Won74%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Samuel: 9 matches in a row over 17.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hynek Barton16%
Toby Samuel84%

Elo: H. Barton 16% · T. Samuel 84%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Barton9%
2:1 H. Barton8%
2:1 T. Samuel20%
2:0 T. Samuel63%

First set

Hynek Barton23%
Toby Samuel77%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes28%
no72%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%27%79%
18.564%36%71%
19.555%45%62%
20.546%54%54%
21.541%60%49%
22.534%66%42%
23.529%71%37%

Sample: 2,287 matches

Games handicap

Toby Samuel −4.556%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes26%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Hynek BartonToby Samuel
8Aces3
3Double faults3
56%First serves in67%
73%First-serve points won65%
50%Second-serve points won50%
2/5Break points converted1/4
10/11Service games held8/10
63%Service points won60%
40%Return points won37%
86Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. BartonTourT. Samuel
Service points won64%62%63%
Return points won39%38%42%
Service games held81%76%79%
Breaks of serve24%24%34%
Aces per service game0.540.36
Double faults per game0.190.21
Sets with a tie-break16%12%
Tie-breaks won11/2614/19
Wins in straight sets70%78%
Matches in the sample7166

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hynek Barton

  • 05/10/26LPyotr Nesterov#298Challenger Villena · Q26:3 4:6 1:6
  • 04/10/26WStefan LatinovicChallenger Villena · Q16:3 7:5
  • 17/09/26LZdenek Kolar#196Challenger Szczecin · R164:6 4:6
  • 15/09/26WRaul Brancaccio#231Challenger Szczecin · R324:6 6:2 6:1
  • 08/09/26LNico Hipfl#740Challenger Tulln · R323:6 3:6
  • 27/08/26LBenito Sanchez Martinez#906Challenger Augsburg · QF4:6 3:6
  • 26/08/26WJuan Manuel La Serna#285Challenger Augsburg · R161:6 7:5 6:2
  • 24/08/26WCalvin Hemery#309Challenger Augsburg · R327:5 7:5
  • 18/08/26LChun Hsin Tseng#225Challenger Prague · R324:6 1:6
  • 10/08/26LFryderyk Łechno-Wasiutyński#796Challenger Hamburg · Q26:4 6:7 6:7

Toby Samuel

Elo over the last year

Hynek BartonToby Samuel

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. BartonT. Samuel
Hard court11–1052%37–882%
Clay28–2157%7–558%
Grass0–05–550%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Hynek Barton

  • 04/10/26WStefan LatinovicChallenger Villena · Q16:3 7:5
  • 05/10/26LPyotr Nesterov#298Challenger Villena · Q26:3 4:6 1:6

Toby Samuel

First match in this tournament.

See also