Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Blanch vs Rocha 0:2: result and our tips

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Dali BlanchATP #320Elo 1589clay 1583
0:2final4:6 5:7
Henrique RochaATP #105Elo 1815clay 1806

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: RochaWon76%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Rocha won 7 of the last 10 matches; Blanch lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Won44%

Where the number comes from: market alone 47% → with the players' profiles 44%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Blanch 10 of 20, Rocha 13 of 20 (tour average 46%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Dali Blanch24%
Henrique Rocha77%

Elo: D. Blanch 22% · H. Rocha 78%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Blanch13%
2:1 D. Blanch11%
2:1 H. Rocha22%
2:0 H. Rocha53%

First set

Dali Blanch30%
Henrique Rocha70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%26%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.549%51%52%
21.544%56%47%
22.538%62%40%
23.535%66%36%

Sample: 2,926 matches

Games handicap

Henrique Rocha −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Dali BlanchHenrique Rocha
5Aces2
1Double faults2
56%First serves in82%
64%First-serve points won59%
32%Second-serve points won62%
3/10Break points converted5/8
6/11Service games held8/11
50%Service points won59%
41%Return points won50%
61Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. BlanchTourH. Rocha
Service points won61%62%63%
Return points won42%38%40%
Service games held75%76%78%
Breaks of serve33%24%28%
Aces per service game0.410.27
Double faults per game0.280.27
Sets with a tie-break15%17%
Tie-breaks won10/2115/27
Wins in straight sets76%72%
Matches in the sample6066

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Dali Blanch

Henrique Rocha

Elo over the last year

Dali BlanchHenrique Rocha

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. BlanchH. Rocha
Hard court5–838%13–1057%
Clay28–1960%25–1464%
Grass0–01–325%

Head to head

They have not met yet.