WTA OsakaWTA 250Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Boulter vs Sakatsume 2:0: result and our tips

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Katie BoulterWTA #58Elo 1822hard 1793
2:0final6:3 6:1
Himeno SakatsumeWTA #115Elo 1687hard 1682

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Boulter 13 of 20, Sakatsume 12 of 20 (tour average 56%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Boulter 12 of 20, Sakatsume 7 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Katie Boulter64%
Himeno Sakatsume36%

Elo: K. Boulter 65% · H. Sakatsume 35%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Boulter40%
2:1 K. Boulter22%
2:1 H. Sakatsume16%
2:0 H. Sakatsume22%

First set

Katie Boulter59%
Himeno Sakatsume41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.548%52%44%
22.542%58%38%
23.538%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,294 matches

Games handicap

Katie Boulter −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 23%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.0out · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Katie BoulterHimeno Sakatsume
1Aces2
7Double faults1
64%First serves in61%
67%First-serve points won46%
48%Second-serve points won48%
5/9Break points converted1/13
7/8Service games held3/8
60%Service points won46%
54%Return points won40%
74Total points won55

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. BoulterTourH. Sakatsume
Service points won56%56%57%
Return points won43%44%45%
Service games held65%63%67%
Breaks of serve34%37%39%
Aces per service game0.220.19
Double faults per game0.500.21
Sets with a tie-break10%6%
Tie-breaks won5/104/7
Wins in straight sets55%73%
Matches in the sample4451

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Katie Boulter

Himeno Sakatsume

Elo over the last year

Katie BoulterHimeno Sakatsume

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. BoulterH. Sakatsume
Hard court14–1352%26–1563%
Clay5–645%2–250%
Grass3–350%2–433%

Head to head

They have not met yet.