Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Cacao vs Perez Contri 1:2: result and our tips

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Tiago CacaoATP #649Elo 1382clay 1404
1:2final6:2 3:6 1:6
Sergi Perez ContriATP #446Elo 1490clay 1488

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tiago Cacao49%
Sergi Perez Contri51%

Elo: T. Cacao 38% · S. Perez Contri 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Cacao30%
2:1 T. Cacao19%
2:1 S. Perez Contri20%
2:0 S. Perez Contri31%

First set

Tiago Cacao49%
Sergi Perez Contri51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%76%
18.566%34%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.552%48%52%
21.545%55%47%
22.541%59%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,274 matches

Games handicap

Sergi Perez Contri −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 24 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Tiago CacaoSergi Perez Contri
2Aces0
4Double faults5
46%First serves in61%
61%First-serve points won63%
40%Second-serve points won44%
4/7Break points converted6/16
6/12Service games held8/12
49%Service points won56%
44%Return points won51%
77Total points won87

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. CacaoTourS. Perez Contri
Service points won59%62%58%
Return points won39%38%43%
Service games held72%76%68%
Breaks of serve25%24%34%
Aces per service game0.320.19
Double faults per game0.250.44
Sets with a tie-break17%18%
Tie-breaks won2/43/5
Wins in straight sets100%80%
Matches in the sample1012

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tiago Cacao

  • 05/10/26LOlle Wallin#423Challenger Braga · Q25:7 6:7
  • 04/10/26WMilos Karol#583Challenger Braga · Q16:4 6:4
  • 27/09/26LAnton Matusevich#314Challenger Porto 2 · Q16:4 4:6 4:6
  • 01/09/26LAlejandro Moro Canas#233Challenger Porto · R326:3 1:6 4:6
  • 31/08/26WAlafia Ayeni#448Challenger Porto · Q27:6 6:1
  • 30/08/26WRodrigo DuarteChallenger Porto · Q16:2 6:1
  • 23/08/26LFabrizio Andaloro#520Challenger Roehampton 2 · Q15:7 1:6
  • 25/01/26LAdria Soriano Barrera#765Challenger Oeiras 2 · Q13:6 6:7
  • 18/01/26LMathys Erhard#373Challenger Oeiras · Q17:6 4:6 4:6
  • 23/11/25LCezar Cretu#276Challenger Maia · Q12:6 4:6

Sergi Perez Contri

  • 04/10/26LNicolas Barrientos#948Challenger Braga · Q16:7 6:1 4:6
  • 06/09/26LAlexander Ritschard#563Challenger Seville · Q17:6 4:6 4:6
  • 08/04/26LJurij Rodionov#140Challenger Madrid · R166:7 7:6 3:6
  • 06/04/26WArthur Gea#56Challenger Madrid · R326:2 3:6 6:1
  • 22/03/26LBenjamin Hassan#500Challenger Montemar · Q13:6 5:7
  • 18/03/26LKyrian Jacquet#76Challenger Zadar · R162:6 0:6
  • 17/03/26WJosip Simundza#850Challenger Zadar · R326:1 6:1
  • 16/03/26WMirza Basic#925Challenger Zadar · Q26:0 7:6
  • 15/03/26WBen Jones#777Challenger Zadar · Q16:2 6:0
  • 24/11/25LTomas Curras Abasolo#946Challenger Maia · Q23:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Tiago CacaoSergi Perez Contri

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. CacaoS. Perez Contri
Hard court0–40%0–0
Clay3–350%5–742%

Head to head

They have not met yet.