WTA 125 LisbonQualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Cakarevic vs Tsygourova 2:1: result and our tips

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Sara CakarevicWTA #609Elo 1430clay 1451
2:1final4:6 6:3 6:4
Katerina TsygourovaWTA #441Elo 1566clay 1570

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sara Cakarevic32%
Katerina Tsygourova68%

Elo: S. Cakarevic 34% · K. Tsygourova 66%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Cakarevic20%
2:1 S. Cakarevic16%
2:1 K. Tsygourova22%
2:0 K. Tsygourova41%

First set

Sara Cakarevic41%
Katerina Tsygourova59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 48%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%42%
22.542%58%37%
23.538%62%33%
24.535%65%31%

Sample: 1,369 matches

Games handicap

Katerina Tsygourova −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Sara CakarevicKaterina Tsygourova
2Aces0
0Double faults1
80%First serves in76%
63%First-serve points won49%
50%Second-serve points won60%
6/10Break points converted4/9
10/14Service games held9/15
60%Service points won52%
48%Return points won40%
102Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. CakarevicTourK. Tsygourova
Service points won—56%54%
Return points won—44%48%
Service games held—63%60%
Breaks of serve—37%45%
Aces per service game—0.20
Double faults per game—0.25
Sets with a tie-break—7%
Tie-breaks won—1/1
Wins in straight sets—75%
Matches in the sample—6

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sara Cakarevic

  • 29/04/25LCeline Naef#216WTA 125 Saint Malo · R323:6 7:6 3:6
  • 28/04/25WEleejah Inisan#712WTA 125 Saint Malo · Q27:6 3:6 6:4
  • 27/04/25WJessica Pieri#315WTA 125 Saint Malo · Q17:6 6:4
  • 08/12/24LIpek Oz#320WTA 125 Limoges · Q17:6 2:6 2:6
  • 03/12/24LVictoria Jimenez Kasintseva#211WTA 125 Angers · R321:6 7:6 1:6
  • 22/05/18LVeronika Kudermetova#670WTA French Open · Q15:7 0:6
  • 23/05/17LSara ErraniWTA French Open · Q11:6 0:6

Katerina Tsygourova

  • 22/09/26LVeronika Erjavec#144WTA 125 Tolentino · R326:4 3:6 4:6
  • 21/09/26WAneta Laboutkova#410WTA 125 Tolentino · Q26:2 6:2
  • 20/09/26WTayisiya MordergerWTA 125 Tolentino · Q16:3 6:3
  • 08/09/26LClara Burel#214WTA 125 Montreux · R321:6 4:6
  • 07/09/26WMadison Sieg#381WTA 125 Montreux · Q26:2 6:3
  • 06/09/26WLisa Zaar#293WTA 125 Montreux · Q17:5 3:6 7:6

Elo over the last year

Sara CakarevicKaterina Tsygourova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. CakarevicK. Tsygourova
Clay0–04–267%

Head to head

They have not met yet.