WTA 125 LisbonRound of 32claybest of three sets

Colmegna vs Jones 0:2: result and our tips

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Martina ColmegnaWTA #325Elo 1506clay 1513
0:2final5:7 1:6
Francesca JonesWTA #104Elo 1783clay 1788

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 15.5Won72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 15.5 games in recent matches: Colmegna 15 of 16, Jones 19 of 20 (tour average 86%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Martina Colmegna8%
Francesca Jones92%

Elo: M. Colmegna 17% · F. Jones 83%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Colmegna4%
2:1 M. Colmegna4%
2:1 F. Jones14%
2:0 F. Jones77%

First set

Martina Colmegna13%
Francesca Jones87%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes19%
no81%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 17.5 · 52%market (no margin): 48%

The 17.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 18.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
14.584%16%93%
15.572%28%86%
16.559%41%78%
17.548%52%69%
18.539%61%60%
19.533%67%52%
20.527%73%46%

Sample: 573 matches

Games handicap

Francesca Jones −6.556%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes13%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 17.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Martina ColmegnaFrancesca Jones
1Aces2
3Double faults4
50%First serves in67%
62%First-serve points won77%
42%Second-serve points won43%
1/3Break points converted4/6
5/9Service games held9/10
52%Service points won66%
34%Return points won48%
49Total points won67

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. ColmegnaTourF. Jones
Service points won55%56%56%
Return points won48%44%45%
Service games held60%63%62%
Breaks of serve45%37%40%
Aces per service game0.090.16
Double faults per game0.200.35
Sets with a tie-break14%9%
Tie-breaks won3/55/11
Wins in straight sets89%48%
Matches in the sample1649

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Martina Colmegna

  • 15/09/26LMia Ristic#183WTA 125 Ljubljana · R325:7 6:7
  • 14/09/26WGabriella PriceWTA 125 Ljubljana · Q16:2 6:3
  • 14/07/26LBarbora Palicova#187WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R326:3 6:7 1:6
  • 12/07/26WBarbora Palicova#187WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · Q16:3 7:6
  • 23/02/26LAnastasia Zolotareva#269WTA 125 Antalya · Q13:6 5:7
  • 22/02/26WCarolina Alves#317WTA 125 Antalya · Q16:4 7:6
  • 02/12/25LOleksandra Oliynykova#51WTA 125 Quito · R323:6 6:3 3:6
  • 01/12/25WMarie Elise CasaresWTA 125 Quito · Q17:6 6:3
  • 16/11/25LAlicia Herrero Linana#222WTA 125 Colina · Q12:6 5:7
  • 26/10/25LSara Bejlek#30WTA 125 Queretaro · SF3:6 2:6

Francesca Jones

Elo over the last year

Martina ColmegnaFrancesca Jones

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. ColmegnaF. Jones
Hard court0–07–847%
Clay9–756%20–1067%
Grass0–00–40%

Head to head

They have not met yet.