Challenger CaliChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Coria vs Mejia 0:2: result and our tips

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Federico CoriaATP #829Elo 1650clay 1655
0:2final6:7(4) 4:6
Nicolas MejiaATP #115Elo 1796clay 1802

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won67%

Where the number comes from: market alone 69% → with the players' profiles 67%

Mejia: 13 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Coria 11 of 16, Mejia 18 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: MejiaWon69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Coria lost the first set in 11 of the last 16 matches, Mejia won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

  • Match Winner: MejiaWon76%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Coria lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Federico Coria24%
Nicolas Mejia76%

Elo: F. Coria 30% · N. Mejia 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Coria13%
2:1 F. Coria12%
2:1 N. Mejia22%
2:0 N. Mejia53%

First set

Federico Coria31%
Nicolas Mejia69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.577%23%76%
18.567%33%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.546%54%47%
22.540%61%40%
23.535%65%36%

Sample: 3,043 matches

Games handicap

Nicolas Mejia −4.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Federico CoriaNicolas Mejia
5Aces5
2Double faults1
55%First serves in49%
65%First-serve points won63%
49%Second-serve points won52%
3/9Break points converted4/6
7/11Service games held8/11
57%Service points won57%
43%Return points won43%
77Total points won78

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. CoriaTourN. Mejia
Service points won57%62%63%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held65%76%78%
Breaks of serve24%24%25%
Aces per service game0.210.44
Double faults per game0.230.19
Sets with a tie-break15%20%
Tie-breaks won4/615/30
Wins in straight sets33%51%
Matches in the sample1866

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Federico Coria

  • 24/09/26LEduardo Ribeiro#355Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R164:6 5:7
  • 22/09/26WLucio Ratti#370Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R326:7 6:3 7:5
  • 25/08/26LClement Chidekh#152ATP US Open · Q12:6 2:6
  • 28/07/26LFrancesco Forti#329Challenger San Marino · R324:6 2:6
  • 18/07/26LVitaliy Sachko#175ATP Kitzbuhel · Q16:7 2:6
  • 12/07/26LTaro Daniel#179ATP Bastad · Q10:6 2:6
  • 09/07/26LGuy Den Ouden#313Challenger Liege · R166:2 2:6 3:6
  • 07/07/26WGeoffrey Blancaneaux#446Challenger Liege · R327:6 1:0
  • 24/06/26LStefanos Sakellaridis#133ATP Wimbledon · Q23:6 4:6
  • 22/06/26WOliver Bonding#658ATP Wimbledon · Q17:6 6:2

Nicolas Mejia

Elo over the last year

Federico CoriaNicolas Mejia

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. CoriaN. Mejia
Hard court0–10%18–2146%
Clay5–1033%16–480%
Grass1–150%5–271%

Head to head

They have not met yet.