Djokovic vs de Minaur 1:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Djokovic won 3 of 3 head-to-head matches; Djokovic won 7 of the last 10 matches
Other tips
- No tie-break55%
Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 55%
No tie-break in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 45%
A tie-break in recent matches: Djokovic 8 of 20, de Minaur 10 of 20 (tour average 34%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: N. Djokovic 74% · A. de Minaur 27%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 73% | 27% | 64% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 56% |
| 21.5 | 58% | 42% | 51% |
| 22.5 | 52% | 48% | 43% |
| 23.5 | 45% | 55% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 36% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 5,551 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 34%
Match stats
| Novak Djokovic | Alex de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Aces | 4 |
| 0 | Double faults | 2 |
| 53% | First serves in | 68% |
| 90% | First-serve points won | 74% |
| 72% | Second-serve points won | 56% |
| 0/2 | Break points converted | 0/1 |
| 6/6 | Service games held | 7/7 |
| 82% | Service points won | 68% |
| 32% | Return points won | 18% |
| 47 | Total points won | 41 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| N. Djokovic | Tour | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 20% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.52 | 0.35 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.19 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/13 | 18/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 39% | 69% | |
| Matches in the sample | 31 | 65 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Novak Djokovic
- 04/10/26WAlexander Zverev#2ATP Beijing · QF4:6 6:4 6:4
- 02/10/26WYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Beijing · R164:6 7:6 6:2
- 30/09/26WNuno Borges#51ATP Beijing · R326:3 7:6
- 30/08/26LMariano Navone#47ATP US Open · R1286:7 7:5 6:4 2:6 1:6
- 15/08/26LThiago Agustin Tirante#54ATP Cincinnati · R646:2 4:6 4:6
- 10/07/26LJannik Sinner#1ATP Wimbledon · SF4:6 4:6 4:6
- 07/07/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP Wimbledon · QF7:6 3:6 6:3 6:7 7:6
- 05/07/26WRoman Safiullin#79ATP Wimbledon · R167:6 6:3 3:6 6:3
- 03/07/26WArthur Rinderknech#33ATP Wimbledon · R327:5 6:4 1:6 7:6
- 01/07/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Wimbledon · R646:3 6:4 6:2
Alex de Minaur
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R644:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:2 6:4
- 19/08/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 17/08/26WArthur Fery#37ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 7:6
- 15/08/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Cincinnati · R641:6 6:3 7:6
- 06/08/26LCameron Norrie#40ATP Montreal · R327:5 6:7 1:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| N. Djokovic | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–576% | 27–1466% |
| Clay | 2–250% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 5–183% | 8–373% |
Head to head
N. Djokovic 3–0 A. de Minaur
- 07/07/25Winner: Novak Djokovic1:6 6:4 6:4 6:4
- 12/04/24Winner: Novak Djokovic7:5 6:4
- 23/01/23Winner: Novak Djokovic6:2 6:1 6:2
Road through the tournament
Novak Djokovic
- 30/09/26WNuno Borges#51ATP Beijing · R326:3 7:6
- 02/10/26WYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Beijing · R164:6 7:6 6:2
- 04/10/26WAlexander Zverev#2ATP Beijing · QF4:6 6:4 6:4
Alex de Minaur
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2