Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Erhard vs Rocco 2:0: result and our tips

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Mathys ErhardATP #373Elo 1627hard 1603
2:0final6:4 7:6(4)
Lorenzo RoccoElo 1435hard 1467

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mathys Erhard98%
Lorenzo Rocco2%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Erhard86%
2:1 M. Erhard11%
2:1 L. Rocco2%
2:0 L. Rocco2%

First set

Mathys Erhard91%
Lorenzo Rocco9%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes12%
no88%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 16.5 · 58%market (no margin): 43%

The 16.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 18.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
14.582%18%97%
15.570%30%94%
16.558%42%88%
17.548%52%80%
18.537%63%71%
19.529%71%63%
20.523%78%55%

Sample: 706 matches

Games handicap

Mathys Erhard −6.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes13%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 16.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Mathys ErhardLorenzo Rocco
8Aces0
0Double faults2
60%First serves in66%
72%First-serve points won64%
55%Second-serve points won50%
2/4Break points converted1/5
10/11Service games held9/11
65%Service points won59%
41%Return points won35%
85Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. ErhardTourL. Rocco
Service points won64%62%—
Return points won38%38%—
Service games held81%76%—
Breaks of serve23%24%—
Aces per service game0.42—
Double faults per game0.22—
Sets with a tie-break21%—
Tie-breaks won12/29—
Wins in straight sets58%—
Matches in the sample58—

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mathys Erhard

  • 04/10/26LOliver Tarvet#307Challenger Villena · Q14:6 3:6
  • 28/09/26LAlberto Barroso Campos#681Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q27:5 4:6 2:6
  • 27/09/26WPaul TheateChallenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q16:4 6:2
  • 20/09/26LPatrick Zahraj#511Challenger Saint Tropez · Q16:4 5:7 6:7
  • 09/09/26LDaniil Glinka#178Challenger Cassis · R166:7 2:4
  • 08/09/26WBenjamin Pietri#770Challenger Cassis · R326:3 6:4
  • 02/09/26LInaki Montes-de la Torre#175Challenger Manacor · R322:6 6:3 4:6
  • 01/09/26WCharles Broom#268Challenger Manacor · Q26:2 6:7 6:1
  • 31/08/26WAnton Shepp#504Challenger Manacor · Q16:1 7:5
  • 08/08/26LJoel Schwaerzler#176Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · SF6:3 6:7 4:6

Lorenzo Rocco

Elo over the last year

Mathys ErhardLorenzo Rocco

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. ErhardL. Rocco
Hard court17–1652%0–0
Clay14–1156%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.