ATP Lyon250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Faria vs Balshaw 1:2: result and our tips

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Jaime FariaATP #56Elo 1940hard 1880
1:2final2:6 6:4 3:6
Felix BalshawATP #186Elo 1782hard 1765

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won74%

Where the number comes from: market alone 72% → with the players' profiles 74%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Faria 15 of 20, Balshaw 19 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Faria 10 of 20, Balshaw 12 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jaime Faria61%
Felix Balshaw39%

Elo: J. Faria 66% · F. Balshaw 34%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Faria38%
2:1 J. Faria22%
2:1 F. Balshaw18%
2:0 F. Balshaw23%

First set

Jaime Faria57%
Felix Balshaw43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,839 matches

Games handicap

Jaime Faria −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 27 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jaime FariaFelix Balshaw
5Aces9
1Double faults1
76%First serves in66%
70%First-serve points won71%
39%Second-serve points won69%
1/9Break points converted3/5
10/13Service games held13/14
62%Service points won70%
30%Return points won38%
71Total points won87

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FariaTourF. Balshaw
Service points won64%62%65%
Return points won38%38%39%
Service games held80%76%81%
Breaks of serve23%24%25%
Aces per service game0.560.66
Double faults per game0.380.28
Sets with a tie-break19%21%
Tie-breaks won23/4215/24
Wins in straight sets55%55%
Matches in the sample8247

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jaime Faria

Felix Balshaw

Elo over the last year

Jaime FariaFelix Balshaw

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FariaF. Balshaw
Hard court17–1455%18–1064%
Clay29–1566%13–668%
Grass5–271%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.