ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 128hardbest of three sets

Fery vs Cilic 2:0: result and our tips

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Arthur FeryATP #37Elo 1950hard 1883
2:0final7:6(2) 6:1
Marin CilicATP #80Elo 1923hard 1898

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won75%

Where the number comes from: market alone 71% → with the players' profiles 75%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Fery 16 of 20, Cilic 17 of 20 (tour average 68%); Cilic: 10 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: FeryWon61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 61%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Cilic lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 40%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Fery 11 of 20, Cilic 8 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Arthur Fery61%
Marin Cilic39%

Elo: A. Fery 48% · M. Cilic 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Fery38%
2:1 A. Fery22%
2:1 M. Cilic18%
2:0 M. Cilic23%

First set

Arthur Fery57%
Marin Cilic43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.546%54%39%
24.542%58%38%
25.540%60%34%

Sample: 5,729 matches

Games handicap

Arthur Fery −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes46%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Arthur FeryMarin Cilic
6Aces6
1Double faults3
82%First serves in56%
69%First-serve points won69%
73%Second-serve points won39%
3/6Break points converted1/2
9/10Service games held6/9
70%Service points won56%
44%Return points won30%
70Total points won53

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. FeryTourM. Cilic
Service points won64%62%66%
Return points won39%38%35%
Service games held80%76%83%
Breaks of serve26%24%18%
Aces per service game0.320.76
Double faults per game0.150.27
Sets with a tie-break14%21%
Tie-breaks won10/228/19
Wins in straight sets44%75%
Matches in the sample6238

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Arthur Fery

Marin Cilic

Elo over the last year

Arthur FeryMarin Cilic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. FeryM. Cilic
Hard court24–1267%15–1158%
Clay6–555%3–443%
Grass11–473%2–340%

Head to head

They have not met yet.