Challenger CaliChallenger 75Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Flores vs Ribero 0:2: result and our tips

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Jesse FloresATP #820Elo 1349clay 1368
0:2finalrebuilt2:6 4:6
Franco RiberoATP #711Elo 1433clay 1439

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ribero: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Won41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ribero: 5 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jesse Flores37%
Franco Ribero63%

Elo: J. Flores 40% · F. Ribero 60%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Flores21%
2:1 J. Flores16%
2:1 F. Ribero23%
2:0 F. Ribero41%

First set

Jesse Flores40%
Franco Ribero61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.567%33%59%
20.559%41%52%
21.554%47%47%
22.547%53%40%
23.541%59%36%
24.539%61%34%
25.535%65%30%

Sample: 4,714 matches

Games handicap

Franco Ribero −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes33%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Jesse FloresFranco Ribero
1Aces2
5Double faults1
48%First serves in73%
52%First-serve points won61%
46%Second-serve points won61%
1/8Break points converted4/8
5/9Service games held8/9
48%Service points won61%
39%Return points won52%
57Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FloresTourF. Ribero
Service points won63%62%61%
Return points won35%38%39%
Service games held79%76%74%
Breaks of serve19%24%25%
Aces per service game0.430.30
Double faults per game0.270.20
Sets with a tie-break18%16%
Tie-breaks won2/39/15
Wins in straight sets67%75%
Matches in the sample842

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jesse Flores

  • 14/09/26LNaoya Honda#607Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q24:6 4:6
  • 13/09/26WWishaya Trongcharoenchaikul#976Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q17:6 1:6 6:3
  • 06/09/26LEthan CookChallenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q16:6
  • 16/03/26LTibo Colson#526Challenger Morelos · Q24:6 4:6
  • 15/03/26WMatteo Covato#742Challenger Morelos · Q17:6 6:2
  • 24/11/25LAlan Magadan#523Challenger Bogota (Los Lagartos) · Q26:4 3:6 3:6
  • 23/11/25WMateo CastanedaChallenger Bogota (Los Lagartos) · Q16:2 6:2
  • 09/11/25LRobin Catry#586Challenger Drummondville · Q13:6 6:7
  • 06/07/25LYusuke Takahashi#727Challenger Winnipeg · Q12:6 6:3 3:6
  • 13/04/25LJames Watt#950Challenger San Luis Potosi · Q11:6 6:7

Franco Ribero

  • 11/10/26LMaximo Zeitune#561Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q13:6 4:6
  • 04/10/26LLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez#533Challenger Antofagasta · Q13:6 2:6
  • 31/08/26LOleksandr Ovcharenko#616Challenger Plovdiv 3 · Q24:6 2:6
  • 30/08/26WDanial SpasovChallenger Plovdiv 3 · Q16:1 6:2
  • 16/08/26LGerard Campana Lee#449Challenger Sion · Q13:6 3:6
  • 09/08/26LNikita Mashtakov#513Challenger Todi · Q16:7 4:6
  • 04/08/26LRadu Mihai Papoe#326Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R324:6 6:1 3:6
  • 03/08/26WDragos Nicolae Cazacu#720Challenger Plovdiv 2 · Q26:3 6:1
  • 02/08/26WWilliam Rejchtman Vinciguerra#840Challenger Plovdiv 2 · Q16:4 1:6 6:1
  • 06/07/26LLeo Raquillet#710Challenger Liege · Q26:3 4:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Jesse FloresFranco Ribero

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FloresF. Ribero
Hard court2–433%0–20%
Clay1–150%20–2050%

Head to head

They have not met yet.