Challenger CaliChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Galan vs Varillas 0:2: result and our tips

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Daniel Elahi GalanATP #368Elo 1710clay 1695
0:2final3:6 3:6
Juan Pablo VarillasATP #204Elo 1714clay 1721

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost56%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Galan 13 of 20, Varillas 12 of 20 (tour average 52%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Galan 10 of 20, Varillas 8 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniel Elahi Galan49%
Juan Pablo Varillas51%

Elo: D. Galan 46% · J. Varillas 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Galan30%
2:1 D. Galan19%
2:1 J. Varillas20%
2:0 J. Varillas31%

First set

Daniel Elahi Galan49%
Juan Pablo Varillas51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%68%
19.563%37%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.550%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,324 matches

Games handicap

Juan Pablo Varillas −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Daniel Elahi GalanJuan Pablo Varillas
6Aces2
2Double faults0
55%First serves in51%
68%First-serve points won83%
35%Second-serve points won65%
1/2Break points converted4/6
5/9Service games held8/9
53%Service points won75%
26%Return points won47%
39Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. GalanTourJ. Varillas
Service points won61%62%62%
Return points won39%38%40%
Service games held75%76%76%
Breaks of serve25%24%28%
Aces per service game0.340.37
Double faults per game0.170.15
Sets with a tie-break21%18%
Tie-breaks won11/2514/28
Wins in straight sets58%56%
Matches in the sample4966

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniel Elahi Galan

Juan Pablo Varillas

Elo over the last year

Daniel Elahi GalanJuan Pablo Varillas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. GalanJ. Varillas
Hard court1–233%0–10%
Clay23–2350%39–2660%

Head to head

D. Galan 1–0 J. Varillas

  • 10/07/24Winner: Daniel Elahi Galan7:6 6:4