WTA BeijingWTA 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Gauff vs Mertens 0:2: result and our tips

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Coco GauffWTA #5Elo 2210hard 2192
0:2final3:6 3:6
Elise MertensWTA #14Elo 1962hard 1915

Our tips

Our tip
Gauff to win the first setLost73%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Gauff won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches, Mertens lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Gauff to winLost79%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Gauff won 9 of the last 10 matches; Gauff won 5 of 5 head-to-head matches

Long shot
A third setLost32%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in 3 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Coco Gauff79%
Elise Mertens21%

Elo: C. Gauff 83% · E. Mertens 17%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Gauff57%
2:1 C. Gauff22%
2:1 E. Mertens11%
2:0 E. Mertens11%

First set

Coco Gauff73%
Elise Mertens27%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.580%20%82%
17.570%31%72%
18.561%39%63%
19.553%47%55%
20.546%54%49%
21.542%58%44%
22.536%64%38%

Sample: 1,438 matches

Games handicap

Coco Gauff −5.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes20%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 20.0in · 18 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Coco GauffElise Mertens
3Aces2
8Double faults2
52%First serves in58%
61%First-serve points won79%
42%Second-serve points won52%
1/1Break points converted4/11
5/9Service games held8/9
52%Service points won68%
32%Return points won48%
49Total points won65

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. GauffTourE. Mertens
Service points won59%56%60%
Return points won47%44%44%
Service games held70%63%71%
Breaks of serve44%37%36%
Aces per service game0.270.40
Double faults per game0.500.42
Sets with a tie-break9%6%
Tie-breaks won10/154/6
Wins in straight sets64%72%
Matches in the sample6548

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Coco Gauff

Elise Mertens

Elo over the last year

Coco GauffElise Mertens

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. GauffE. Mertens
Hard court35–980%17–1161%
Clay10–471%5–456%
Grass5–271%7–464%

Head to head

C. Gauff 5–0 E. Mertens

  • 18/02/26Winner: Coco Gauff2:6 7:6 6:3
  • 13/03/24Winner: Coco Gauff6:0 6:2
  • 01/09/23Winner: Coco Gauff3:6 6:3 6:0
  • 29/05/22Winner: Coco Gauff6:4 6:0
  • 22/06/21Winner: Coco Gauff0:6 7:6 7:5

Road through the tournament

Coco Gauff

Elise Mertens

See also