ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 128hardbest of three sets

Gea vs Faria 2:1: result and our tips

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Arthur GeaATP #56Elo 1964hard 1961
2:1final6:7(3) 6:1 6:2
Jaime FariaATP #60Elo 1954hard 1895

Our tips

Our tip
Gea to winWon63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Gea won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Arthur Gea63%
Jaime Faria37%

Elo: A. Gea 59% · J. Faria 41%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Gea40%
2:1 A. Gea22%
2:1 J. Faria17%
2:0 J. Faria22%

First set

Arthur Gea59%
Jaime Faria41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.565%36%59%
21.559%41%54%
22.551%49%45%
23.544%56%39%
24.541%59%38%
25.538%62%34%

Sample: 5,559 matches

Games handicap

Arthur Gea −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 28 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Arthur GeaJaime Faria
7Aces7
1Double faults5
61%First serves in70%
78%First-serve points won66%
79%Second-serve points won45%
5/8Break points converted0/2
13/13Service games held9/14
78%Service points won59%
41%Return points won22%
97Total points won73

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. GeaTourJ. Faria
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held80%76%80%
Breaks of serve27%24%24%
Aces per service game0.460.55
Double faults per game0.320.38
Sets with a tie-break19%19%
Tie-breaks won20/3322/41
Wins in straight sets59%56%
Matches in the sample6983

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Arthur Gea

Jaime Faria

Elo over the last year

Arthur GeaJaime Faria

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. GeaJ. Faria
Hard court32–978%18–1456%
Clay12–860%29–1566%
Grass5–456%5–271%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also