ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 128hardbest of three sets

Giron vs Báez 1:2: result and our tips

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Marcos GironATP #88Elo 1821hard 1796
1:2final6:1 3:6 4:6
Sebastián BáezATP #53Elo 1906hard 1855

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Giron 18 of 20, Baez 13 of 20 (tour average 59%); Giron: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Won46%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Baez: 4 matches in a row over 23.5 games; Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Giron 12 of 20, Baez 9 of 20 (tour average 39%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Marcos Giron45%
Sebastián Báez55%

Elo: M. Giron 42% · S. Báez 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Giron26%
2:1 M. Giron19%
2:1 S. Báez21%
2:0 S. Báez34%

First set

Marcos Giron46%
Sebastián Báez54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.553%47%45%
23.546%54%39%
24.544%56%38%
25.540%60%34%

Sample: 5,474 matches

Games handicap

Sebastián Báez −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Marcos GironSebastián Báez
8Aces2
2Double faults0
57%First serves in69%
70%First-serve points won60%
35%Second-serve points won48%
5/11Break points converted5/10
8/13Service games held8/13
55%Service points won56%
44%Return points won45%
85Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. GironTourS. Báez
Service points won65%62%61%
Return points won36%38%39%
Service games held81%76%73%
Breaks of serve20%24%25%
Aces per service game0.410.18
Double faults per game0.150.19
Sets with a tie-break24%9%
Tie-breaks won16/357/12
Wins in straight sets58%77%
Matches in the sample5659

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marcos Giron

Sebastián Báez

Elo over the last year

Marcos GironSebastián Báez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. GironS. Báez
Hard court18–1850%13–1448%
Clay3–633%17–1455%
Grass5–645%0–10%

Head to head

M. Giron 0–3 S. Báez

  • 16/01/26Winner: Sebastián Báez1:6 4:6
  • 13/08/24Winner: Sebastián Báez4:6 7:5 6:7
  • 29/04/23Winner: Sebastián Báez6:3 3:6 4:6

See also