WTA 125 MallorcaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Grabher vs Chiesa 2:1: result and our tips

·

Julia GrabherWTA #97Elo 1743clay 1769
2:1final3:6 6:4 6:4
Deborah ChiesaWTA #345Elo 1458clay 1466

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Grabher 16 of 20, Chiesa 9 of 14 (tour average 59%); Grabher: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: GrabherWon75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Grabher won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Grabher 9 of 20, Chiesa 8 of 14 (tour average 37%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Julia Grabher75%
Deborah Chiesa25%

Elo: J. Grabher 85% · D. Chiesa 15%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Grabher54%
2:1 J. Grabher22%
2:1 D. Chiesa12%
2:0 D. Chiesa12%

First set

Julia Grabher69%
Deborah Chiesa31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.579%21%77%
17.570%30%68%
18.560%40%59%
19.552%49%52%
20.545%55%45%
21.542%58%42%
22.538%62%37%

Sample: 1,123 matches

Games handicap

Julia Grabher −4.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes19%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Julia GrabherDeborah Chiesa
0Aces2
8Double faults4
69%First serves in54%
57%First-serve points won59%
41%Second-serve points won43%
7/11Break points converted6/10
8/14Service games held8/15
52%Service points won52%
48%Return points won48%
92Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. GrabherTourD. Chiesa
Service points won55%56%56%
Return points won45%44%45%
Service games held64%63%64%
Breaks of serve38%37%38%
Aces per service game0.160.17
Double faults per game0.500.22
Sets with a tie-break15%8%
Tie-breaks won11/180/3
Wins in straight sets60%50%
Matches in the sample5314

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Julia Grabher

Deborah Chiesa

  • 14/09/26LLucija Ciric-Bagaric#402WTA 125 Ljubljana · Q16:4 4:6 2:6
  • 07/09/26LLucija Ciric-Bagaric#402WTA 125 Montreux · Q26:3 2:6 2:6
  • 06/09/26WDiana Martynov#398WTA 125 Montreux · Q16:3 6:3
  • 26/07/26LAndreea Prisacariu#525WTA 125 Targu Mures · Q16:7 2:6
  • 20/07/26LYasmine Kabbaj#255WTA 125 Palermo · R324:6 1:6
  • 17/07/26LLucia Bronzetti#135WTA 125 Rome · QF6:2 3:6 2:6
  • 15/07/26WLola Radivojevic#260WTA 125 Rome · R166:2 6:2
  • 13/07/26WLina Gjorcheska#361WTA 125 Rome · R326:7 6:3 6:3
  • 16/06/26LMia Ristic#183WTA 125 Brescia · R325:7 6:3 4:6
  • 15/06/26WEkaterina Kazionova#524WTA 125 Brescia · Q23:6 6:2 6:2

Elo over the last year

Julia GrabherDeborah Chiesa

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. GrabherD. Chiesa
Hard court5–1033%0–10%
Clay25–1268%6–746%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

J. Grabher 1–0 D. Chiesa

  • 30/09/25Winner: Julia Grabher6:3 6:1

See also