Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Grenier vs Bonzi 1:2: result and our tips

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Hugo GrenierATP #269Elo 1645hard 1641
1:2final7:6(5) 1:6 3:6
Benjamin BonziATP #92Elo 1919hard 1886

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Grenier: 11 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost64%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 64%

    Grenier: 10 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hugo Grenier27%
Benjamin Bonzi73%

Elo: H. Grenier 20% · B. Bonzi 80%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Grenier15%
2:1 H. Grenier12%
2:1 B. Bonzi22%
2:0 B. Bonzi51%

First set

Hugo Grenier32%
Benjamin Bonzi68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%71%
19.567%33%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.552%48%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.539%61%37%
24.536%65%35%

Sample: 4,066 matches

Games handicap

Benjamin Bonzi −3.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 29 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Hugo GrenierBenjamin Bonzi
15Aces5
6Double faults3
67%First serves in56%
70%First-serve points won73%
38%Second-serve points won59%
1/5Break points converted5/13
9/14Service games held13/14
59%Service points won67%
33%Return points won41%
85Total points won102

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. GrenierTourB. Bonzi
Service points won62%62%65%
Return points won38%38%36%
Service games held73%76%81%
Breaks of serve25%24%21%
Aces per service game0.630.46
Double faults per game0.300.19
Sets with a tie-break17%21%
Tie-breaks won7/1820/32
Wins in straight sets64%64%
Matches in the sample4862

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hugo Grenier

  • 05/10/26LGeorgii Kravchenko#313Challenger Villena · Q26:7 4:6
  • 04/10/26WBruno Pujol NavarroChallenger Villena · Q16:4 6:3
  • 02/10/26LInaki Montes-de la Torre#175Challenger Porto 2 · QF2:6 6:7
  • 01/10/26WTiago Pereira#339Challenger Porto 2 · R167:6 6:3
  • 29/09/26WCarl Emil Overbeck#295Challenger Porto 2 · R326:4 6:2
  • 22/09/26LThomas Faurel#328Challenger Saint Tropez · R324:6 4:6
  • 21/09/26WVadym Ursu#405Challenger Saint Tropez · Q26:4 6:4
  • 20/09/26WChristian Langmo#534Challenger Saint Tropez · Q16:2 6:4
  • 07/09/26LBilly Harris#241Challenger Cassis · R325:7 3:6
  • 01/09/26LBilly Harris#241Challenger Manacor · R322:6 6:7

Benjamin Bonzi

Elo over the last year

Hugo GrenierBenjamin Bonzi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. GrenierB. Bonzi
Hard court22–2052%26–1760%
Clay0–40%4–640%
Grass0–20%6–367%

Head to head

H. Grenier 0–1 B. Bonzi

  • 04/09/21Winner: Benjamin Bonzi6:4 3:6 2:6