ATP Lyon250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Humbert vs Moutet 1:2: result and our tips

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Ugo HumbertATP #35Elo 1965hard 1946
1:2final2:6 7:6(5) 6:7(4)
Corentin MoutetATP #94Elo 1864hard 1866

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: HumbertLost72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 72%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Moutet lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: HumbertLost67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Humbert won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Moutet lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Humbert 2-0Lost49%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Humbert won 2-0 in 8 of the last 20 matches, Moutet lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ugo Humbert72%
Corentin Moutet28%

Elo: U. Humbert 61% · C. Moutet 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 U. Humbert49%
2:1 U. Humbert23%
2:1 C. Moutet13%
2:0 C. Moutet16%

First set

Ugo Humbert67%
Corentin Moutet33%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%68%
20.564%36%60%
21.557%43%54%
22.550%50%46%
23.543%57%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.536%64%34%

Sample: 4,343 matches

Games handicap

Ugo Humbert −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 34 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ugo HumbertCorentin Moutet
12Aces1
2Double faults2
58%First serves in73%
73%First-serve points won66%
48%Second-serve points won49%
2/12Break points converted4/10
12/16Service games held14/16
63%Service points won62%
39%Return points won37%
121Total points won124

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

U. HumbertTourC. Moutet
Service points won67%62%61%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held84%76%74%
Breaks of serve17%24%23%
Aces per service game0.580.29
Double faults per game0.260.25
Sets with a tie-break20%10%
Tie-breaks won15/264/9
Wins in straight sets79%69%
Matches in the sample5336

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ugo Humbert

Corentin Moutet

Elo over the last year

Ugo HumbertCorentin Moutet

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

U. HumbertC. Moutet
Hard court16–1552%9–1243%
Clay5–550%3–730%
Grass8–467%1–420%

Head to head

U. Humbert 0–2 C. Moutet

  • 09/05/25Winner: Corentin Moutet3:6 0:4
  • 29/10/22Winner: Corentin Moutet3:6 4:6

See also