Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Hurrion vs Matsuda 1:2: result and our tips

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Millen HurrionATP #538Elo 1525hard 1529
1:2final3:6 6:4 6:7(2)
Koki MatsudaATP #481Elo 1482hard 1480

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Millen Hurrion67%
Koki Matsuda33%

Elo: M. Hurrion 57% · K. Matsuda 43%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Hurrion45%
2:1 M. Hurrion22%
2:1 K. Matsuda14%
2:0 K. Matsuda19%

First set

Millen Hurrion63%
Koki Matsuda38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.553%47%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.540%60%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,169 matches

Games handicap

Millen Hurrion −3.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Millen HurrionKoki Matsuda
8Aces12
4Double faults3
69%First serves in53%
68%First-serve points won70%
42%Second-serve points won56%
4/8Break points converted5/10
11/16Service games held11/15
60%Service points won64%
36%Return points won40%
91Total points won96

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. HurrionTourK. Matsuda
Service points won60%62%62%
Return points won39%38%36%
Service games held71%76%77%
Breaks of serve23%24%20%
Aces per service game0.310.50
Double faults per game0.270.17
Sets with a tie-break18%19%
Tie-breaks won5/812/16
Wins in straight sets88%56%
Matches in the sample2033

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Millen Hurrion

  • 24/08/26LOliver Bonding#714Challenger Roehampton 2 · Q23:6 4:6
  • 23/08/26WMarcus Walters#915Challenger Roehampton 2 · Q16:2 6:4
  • 06/08/26LAndres Martin#338Challenger Lexington · R163:6 6:4 2:6
  • 04/08/26WJack Pinnington Jones#205Challenger Lexington · R327:6 6:4
  • 03/08/26WTyler Zink#344Challenger Lexington · Q27:6 5:7 7:6
  • 02/08/26WAlex Hernandez#484Challenger Lexington · Q16:4 6:4
  • 21/07/26LLiam Draxl#219Challenger Winnipeg · R320:6 0:6
  • 20/07/26WRenta Tokuda#799Challenger Winnipeg · Q27:5 6:1
  • 20/07/26WKaylan Bigun#580Challenger Winnipeg · Q16:4 7:5
  • 13/06/26LSoonwoo Kwon#161Challenger Nottingham 2 · Q12:6 4:6

Koki Matsuda

  • 06/10/26LEvan Zhu#479Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 3:6
  • 28/09/26LKeisuke Saitoh#550Challenger Jingshan · Q13:6 2:6
  • 15/09/26LArthur Weber#409Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R321:6 2:6
  • 10/09/26LPhilip Sekulic#363Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R162:6 6:4 5:7
  • 08/09/26WMartin Borisiouk#869Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R327:5 7:6
  • 02/09/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#424Challenger Zhangjiagang · R163:6 2:6
  • 01/09/26WJake Delaney#357Challenger Zhangjiagang · R327:6 7:6
  • 31/08/26WFanming Meng#985Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q22:6 6:3 7:6
  • 30/08/26WKaito UesugiChallenger Zhangjiagang · Q16:7 7:6 6:4
  • 10/08/26LHayato Matsuoka#247Challenger Astana · R323:6 4:6

Elo over the last year

Millen HurrionKoki Matsuda

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. HurrionK. Matsuda
Hard court8–1044%18–1653%
Grass0–20%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.