ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Jacquet vs Sakamoto 1:2: result and our tips

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Kyrian JacquetATP #76Elo 1906hard 1892
1:2final6:7(6) 6:4 6:7(8)
Rei SakamotoATP #137Elo 1828hard 1814

Our tips

Our tip
No third setLost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Jacquet: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
A tie-breakWon43%

Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 43%

A tie-break in recent matches: Jacquet 8 of 20, Sakamoto 10 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Kyrian Jacquet56%
Rei Sakamoto44%

Elo: K. Jacquet 61% · R. Sakamoto 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Jacquet36%
2:1 K. Jacquet21%
2:1 R. Sakamoto18%
2:0 R. Sakamoto26%

First set

Kyrian Jacquet55%
Rei Sakamoto45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%64%
20.565%35%56%
21.559%41%51%
22.552%48%43%
23.545%55%37%
24.542%58%36%
25.539%61%32%

Sample: 5,569 matches

Games handicap

Kyrian Jacquet −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 34%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Kyrian JacquetRei Sakamoto
8Aces13
0Double faults4
65%First serves in69%
83%First-serve points won74%
55%Second-serve points won54%
2/9Break points converted1/6
16/17Service games held15/17
73%Service points won68%
32%Return points won27%
121Total points won115

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. JacquetTourR. Sakamoto
Service points won64%62%66%
Return points won40%38%37%
Service games held80%76%83%
Breaks of serve26%24%21%
Aces per service game0.490.66
Double faults per game0.230.19
Sets with a tie-break20%23%
Tie-breaks won22/3417/39
Wins in straight sets64%62%
Matches in the sample6869

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Kyrian Jacquet

Rei Sakamoto

Elo over the last year

Kyrian JacquetRei Sakamoto

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. JacquetR. Sakamoto
Hard court30–1468%31–1962%
Clay8–657%9–660%
Grass7–370%2–250%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Kyrian Jacquet

  • 05/10/26WTianhui Zhang#803ATP Shanghai · Q16:2 7:6

Rei Sakamoto