Kovacevic vs Berrettini 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 60%
A tie-break in recent matches: Kovacevic 11 of 20, Berrettini 12 of 20 (tour average 38%); Berrettini: 5 matches in a row with a tie-break
Other tips
- Berrettini to win the first setLost60%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Kovacevic lost the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Berrettini won the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Kovacevic 30% · M. Berrettini 70%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 75% | 25% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 53% | 47% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 45% | 55% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 41% | 59% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 38% | 62% | 30% |
Sample: 5,413 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Over 23.5in · 30 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 23 |
| 4 | Double faults | 4 |
| 56% | First serves in | 64% |
| 69% | First-serve points won | 92% |
| 47% | Second-serve points won | 69% |
| 0/0 | Break points converted | 3/11 |
| 11/14 | Service games held | 15/15 |
| 60% | Service points won | 84% |
| 16% | Return points won | 41% |
| 78 | Total points won | 106 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Kovacevic | Tour | M. Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 32% | 38% | 34% |
| Service games held | 83% | 76% | 85% |
| Breaks of serve | 14% | 24% | 17% |
| Aces per service game | 0.74 | 0.66 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.16 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 27% | 25% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 23/43 | 18/30 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 62 | 45 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
- 29/09/26LJaume Munar#49ATP Tokyo · Q22:6 3:6
- 28/09/26WZachary Svajda#82ATP Tokyo · Q16:7 6:2 6:4
- 24/09/26LLloyd Harris#110ATP Chengdu · R323:6 4:6
- 31/08/26LValentin Vacherot#14ATP US Open · R1282:6 3:6 5:7
- 28/08/26LArthur Fery#37ATP Winston Salem · QF6:3 5:7 3:6
- 26/08/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Winston Salem · R166:3 7:6
- 25/08/26WLuca Van Assche#45ATP Winston Salem · R326:1 7:6
- 24/08/26WFelix Balshaw#198ATP Winston Salem · R646:4 7:6
- 16/08/26LBrandon Nakashima#19ATP Cincinnati · R642:6 5:7
- 15/08/26WKaren Khachanov#27ATP Cincinnati · R1285:7 6:3 7:6
Matteo Berrettini
- 03/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Tokyo · R166:7 1:6
- 01/10/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#26ATP Tokyo · R321:6 7:6 6:4
- 02/09/26LMariano Navone#47ATP US Open · R646:3 3:6 4:6 6:7
- 31/08/26WStan Wawrinka#142ATP US Open · R1287:6 7:6 6:0
- 15/08/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP Cincinnati · R644:6 7:6 3:6
- 14/08/26WTitouan Droguet#72ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 6:1 6:4
- 03/08/26LMariano Navone#47ATP Montreal · R1283:6 7:6 3:6
- 04/07/26LGrigor Dimitrov#127ATP Wimbledon · R323:6 4:6 6:3 7:5 3:6
- 02/07/26WArthur Fils#11ATP Wimbledon · R646:4 7:5 3:6 6:3
- 30/06/26WStan Wawrinka#142ATP Wimbledon · R1286:7 7:6 7:6 7:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Kovacevic | M. Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–2245% | 11–955% |
| Clay | 7–944% | 12–1055% |
| Grass | 1–517% | 2–167% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.