WTA 125 LisbonRound of 32claybest of three sets

Kulambayeva vs Jorge 1:2: result and our tips

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Zhibek KulambayevaWTA #475Elo 1474clay 1493
1:2final6:4 2:6 3:6
Francisca JorgeWTA #209Elo 1528clay 1501

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Kulambayeva 10 of 11, Jorge 13 of 17 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Kulambayeva 10 of 11, Jorge 13 of 17 (tour average 67%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Zhibek Kulambayeva36%
Francisca Jorge64%

Elo: Z. Kulambayeva 49% · F. Jorge 51%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Z. Kulambayeva24%
2:1 Z. Kulambayeva17%
2:1 F. Jorge22%
2:0 F. Jorge37%

First set

Zhibek Kulambayeva45%
Francisca Jorge55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.561%39%52%
20.553%47%45%
21.549%51%42%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,459 matches

Games handicap

Francisca Jorge −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 27 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Zhibek KulambayevaFrancisca Jorge
1Aces1
5Double faults7
82%First serves in69%
50%First-serve points won58%
50%Second-serve points won50%
5/11Break points converted7/12
6/13Service games held9/14
50%Service points won55%
45%Return points won50%
87Total points won97

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Z. KulambayevaTourF. Jorge
Service points won54%56%54%
Return points won46%44%45%
Service games held60%63%59%
Breaks of serve38%37%39%
Aces per service game0.110.17
Double faults per game0.270.27
Sets with a tie-break9%13%
Tie-breaks won2/22/5
Wins in straight sets100%75%
Matches in the sample1118

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Zhibek Kulambayeva

  • 13/09/26LMalaika Rapolu#298WTA 125 Caldas da Rainha · Q13:6 2:6
  • 09/09/26LElizara Yaneva#146WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R163:6 6:3 4:6
  • 07/09/26WRadka Zelnickova#349WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R326:4 6:4
  • 13/07/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#139WTA Iasi · Q21:6 4:6
  • 12/07/26WLisa Zaar#293WTA Iasi · Q17:6 6:3
  • 16/05/26LAnastasia Zolotareva#269WTA Rabat · Q15:7 3:6
  • 12/05/26LAnna-Lena Friedsam#242WTA 125 Parma · R321:6 4:6
  • 11/05/26WNicole Fossa Huergo#992WTA 125 Parma · Q16:1 6:4
  • 28/04/26LXiyu Wang#91WTA 125 Huzhou · R323:6 4:6
  • 27/04/26WMeiqi Guo#659WTA 125 Huzhou · Q26:1 7:6

Francisca Jorge

Elo over the last year

Zhibek KulambayevaFrancisca Jorge

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Z. KulambayevaF. Jorge
Hard court0–10%6–746%
Clay5–550%1–233%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.