Challenger FlorenceChallenger 50Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Lagutin vs Milev 0:2: result and our tips

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Pavel LagutinATP #390Elo 1694clay 1684
0:2finalrebuilt3:6 4:6
Yanaki MilevATP #535Elo 1692clay 1687

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: LagutinLost72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 72%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Lagutin won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Pavel Lagutin75%
Yanaki Milev25%

Elo: P. Lagutin 50% · Y. Milev 50%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Lagutin52%
2:1 P. Lagutin23%
2:1 Y. Milev12%
2:0 Y. Milev14%

First set

Pavel Lagutin69%
Yanaki Milev31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 59%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.578%22%84%
17.569%31%76%
18.560%40%68%
19.553%47%59%
20.547%53%52%
21.541%59%47%
22.536%64%40%

Sample: 3,104 matches

Games handicap

Pavel Lagutin −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Pavel LagutinYanaki Milev
0Aces3
0Double faults1
80%First serves in54%
46%First-serve points won68%
67%Second-serve points won56%
2/7Break points converted4/4
5/9Service games held8/10
50%Service points won63%
37%Return points won50%
49Total points won67

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. LagutinTourY. Milev
Service points won61%62%59%
Return points won44%38%42%
Service games held72%76%72%
Breaks of serve39%24%31%
Aces per service game0.120.22
Double faults per game0.190.32
Sets with a tie-break10%10%
Tie-breaks won4/53/5
Wins in straight sets60%54%
Matches in the sample2121

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Pavel Lagutin

  • 15/10/26LMassimo Giunta#365Challenger Catania · R165:7 3:6
  • 13/10/26WMichael Geerts#347Challenger Catania · R326:4 6:1
  • 12/10/26WOleksandr Ovcharenko#616Challenger Catania · Q23:6 7:5 6:3
  • 11/10/26WIgnacio Parisca Romera#640Challenger Catania · Q16:3 6:0
  • 22/09/26LIliyan Radulov#570Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R325:7 2:6
  • 21/09/26WSvyatoslav Gulin#545Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q27:6 3:0
  • 20/09/26WRares Teodor Pieleanu#769Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q16:3 6:0
  • 16/09/26LAlejandro Moro Canas#232Challenger Biella · R164:6 3:6
  • 15/09/26WEnrico Dalla Valle#303Challenger Biella · R323:6 7:6 6:3
  • 14/09/26WMaximilian MartererChallenger Biella · Q26:2 6:2

Yanaki Milev

  • 12/10/26LFederico Iannaccone#579Challenger Catania · Q26:7 6:4 6:7
  • 11/10/26WMaxime Chazal#418Challenger Catania · Q16:4 7:6
  • 10/10/26LFrancesco Passaro#146Challenger Palermo · SF2:6 1:6
  • 09/10/26WCarlos Sanchez Jover#325Challenger Palermo · QF7:5 6:3
  • 08/10/26WBuvaysar Gadamauri#254Challenger Palermo · R166:2 7:6
  • 06/10/26WIvan Gakhov#503Challenger Palermo · R326:2 6:3
  • 05/10/26WDaniel Siniakov#496Challenger Palermo · Q25:7 6:3 6:4
  • 04/10/26WOscar Jose Gutierrez#701Challenger Palermo · Q16:2 4:6 6:1
  • 22/09/26LTommaso Compagnucci#373Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R323:6 6:1 3:6
  • 21/09/26WLuca Wiedenmann#532Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q26:2 6:1

Elo over the last year

Pavel LagutinYanaki Milev

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. LagutinY. Milev
Hard court2–167%0–0
Clay13–572%13–862%

Head to head

They have not met yet.