Challenger CataniaChallenger 50Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Madaras vs Vrba 1:2: result and our tips

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Dragos Nicolae MadarasATP #488Elo 1447clay 1443
1:2final6:4 1:6 2:6
Jakub VrbaElo 1476clay 1493

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Dragos Nicolae Madaras90%
Jakub Vrba10%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Madaras72%
2:1 D. Madaras18%
2:1 J. Vrba6%
2:0 J. Vrba5%

First set

Dragos Nicolae Madaras83%
Jakub Vrba17%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes23%
no77%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 18.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 18.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.581%19%91%
16.571%30%84%
17.560%40%76%
18.551%50%68%
19.543%57%59%
20.536%65%52%
21.531%69%47%

Sample: 1,423 matches

Games handicap

Dragos Nicolae Madaras −6.543%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes19%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 18.5in · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Dragos Nicolae MadarasJakub Vrba
4Aces7
12Double faults8
55%First serves in59%
68%First-serve points won85%
33%Second-serve points won43%
3/5Break points converted6/15
6/12Service games held10/13
52%Service points won68%
32%Return points won48%
67Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MadarasTourJ. Vrba
Service points won—62%62%
Return points won—38%37%
Service games held—76%74%
Breaks of serve—24%21%
Aces per service game—0.61
Double faults per game—0.30
Sets with a tie-break—11%
Tie-breaks won—1/1
Wins in straight sets—0%
Matches in the sample—4

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Jakub Vrba

  • 21/09/26LSpencer Johnson#443Challenger San Diego 2 · Q22:6 4:6
  • 20/09/26WBlaise Bicknell#421Challenger San Diego 2 · Q16:3 3:1
  • 27/07/26LPablo Martinez Gomez#686Challenger Liberec · Q21:6 3:6
  • 26/07/26WRudolf Molleker#535Challenger Liberec · Q14:6 7:6 6:4

Elo over the last year

Dragos Nicolae MadarasJakub Vrba

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MadarasJ. Vrba
Hard court0–01–150%
Clay0–01–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.