Maestrelli vs Tarvet 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Maestrelli lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Tarvet won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Tarvet to winWon77%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 77%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Tarvet won 9 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
A third set in recent matches: Maestrelli 12 of 20, Tarvet 7 of 20 (tour average 34%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: F. Maestrelli 28% · O. Tarvet 72%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 72% |
| 19.5 | 67% | 33% | 64% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 56% |
| 21.5 | 51% | 49% | 51% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 43% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 34% | 66% | 36% |
Sample: 3,358 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 34%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Over 21.5in · 29 games
- Games handicapnot covered
Match stats
| Francesco Maestrelli | Oliver Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aces | 7 |
| 3 | Double faults | 1 |
| 72% | First serves in | 63% |
| 69% | First-serve points won | 67% |
| 46% | Second-serve points won | 72% |
| 2/4 | Break points converted | 3/9 |
| 11/14 | Service games held | 13/15 |
| 63% | Service points won | 69% |
| 31% | Return points won | 37% |
| 81 | Total points won | 91 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| F. Maestrelli | Tour | O. Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 20% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.59 | 0.54 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.29 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 23% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 16/31 | 3/9 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 56 | 29 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Francesco Maestrelli
- 21/09/26LAndrea Guerrieri#165Challenger Saint Tropez · R323:6 7:6 3:6
- 18/09/26LSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#189Challenger Rennes · QF0:6 3:6
- 17/09/26WYanis Ghazouani Durand#509Challenger Rennes · R164:6 7:6 6:3
- 16/09/26WArthur Nagel#354Challenger Rennes · R326:4 7:6
- 11/09/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#238Challenger Istanbul 3 · QF0:6 6:2 1:6
- 09/09/26WAlafia Ayeni#448Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:7 6:1 6:4
- 08/09/26WJuan Pablo Ficovich#366Challenger Istanbul 3 · R326:2 6:2
- 24/08/26LToby Samuel#100ATP US Open · Q17:6 3:6 1:6
- 18/08/26LAlexei Popyrin#129Challenger Quebec City · R324:6 6:7
- 11/08/26LYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Cincinnati · Q16:7 4:6
Oliver Tarvet
- 05/10/26WDiego Dedura#190Challenger Villena · Q26:3 7:5
- 04/10/26WMathys Erhard#373Challenger Villena · Q16:4 6:3
- 28/08/26LCharles Broom#268Challenger Roehampton 2 · SF4:6 7:5 1:6
- 27/08/26WEmile Hudd#463Challenger Roehampton 2 · QF6:2 6:4
- 26/08/26WOliver Bonding#714Challenger Roehampton 2 · R166:4 6:0
- 25/08/26WMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida#255Challenger Roehampton 2 · R326:4 6:4
- 22/08/26WLucas Poullain#322Challenger Roehampton · F6:3 6:2
- 21/08/26WAnton Matusevich#314Challenger Roehampton · SF6:2 2:6 6:2
- 20/08/26WCharles Broom#268Challenger Roehampton · QF6:4 5:7 6:1
- 19/08/26WMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida#255Challenger Roehampton · R166:2 5:7 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| F. Maestrelli | O. Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 24–1759% | 14–670% |
| Clay | 2–1017% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 0–30% | 5–456% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Francesco Maestrelli
First match in this tournament.
Oliver Tarvet
- 04/10/26WMathys Erhard#373Challenger Villena · Q16:4 6:3
- 05/10/26WDiego Dedura#190Challenger Villena · Q26:3 7:5