ATP Almaty250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Marozsan vs Skatov 2:0: result and our tips

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Fabian MarozsanATP #64Elo 1903hard 1865
2:0final7:5 7:6(4)
Timofey SkatovATP #201Elo 1694hard 1651

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Won66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Skatov: 11 matches in a row under 25.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Skatov: 5 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon42%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 42%

Marozsan: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Fabian Marozsan77%
Timofey Skatov24%

Elo: F. Marozsan 77% · T. Skatov 23%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Marozsan53%
2:1 F. Marozsan22%
2:1 T. Skatov12%
2:0 T. Skatov13%

First set

Fabian Marozsan71%
Timofey Skatov29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.561%39%59%
21.554%46%54%
22.547%53%45%
23.540%60%39%
24.537%63%38%
25.534%66%34%

Sample: 3,543 matches

Games handicap

Fabian Marozsan −3.556%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Fabian MarozsanTimofey Skatov
4Aces5
2Double faults5
71%First serves in65%
76%First-serve points won66%
70%Second-serve points won46%
2/10Break points converted1/1
11/12Service games held10/12
74%Service points won59%
41%Return points won26%
95Total points won80

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. MarozsanTourT. Skatov
Service points won64%62%62%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held80%76%76%
Breaks of serve17%24%24%
Aces per service game0.380.27
Double faults per game0.170.24
Sets with a tie-break21%18%
Tie-breaks won14/259/26
Wins in straight sets62%72%
Matches in the sample4565

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Fabian Marozsan

Timofey Skatov

Elo over the last year

Fabian MarozsanTimofey Skatov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. MarozsanT. Skatov
Hard court11–1444%12–1152%
Clay5–645%18–2047%
Grass5–456%2–250%

Head to head

F. Marozsan 2–0 T. Skatov

  • 21/10/23Winner: Fabian Marozsan6:3 7:6
  • 08/05/23Winner: Fabian Marozsan6:0 2:6 7:5