Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Martin vs Cacao 2:0: result and our tips

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Andrej MartinATP #358Elo 1609clay 1604
2:0final7:6(2) 6:4
Tiago CacaoATP #626Elo 1361clay 1381

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: MartinWon62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cacao lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: CacaoLost40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Martin lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Cacao won the first set in 7 of the last 11 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Andrej Martin64%
Tiago Cacao36%

Elo: A. Martin 78% · T. Cacao 22%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Martin42%
2:1 A. Martin23%
2:1 T. Cacao16%
2:0 T. Cacao20%

First set

Andrej Martin61%
Tiago Cacao39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%68%
19.561%39%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.549%51%47%
22.543%57%40%
23.539%61%36%
24.536%64%34%

Sample: 4,684 matches

Games handicap

Andrej Martin −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Andrej MartinTiago Cacao
1Aces0
3Double faults0
59%First serves in63%
64%First-serve points won59%
55%Second-serve points won50%
4/13Break points converted3/7
8/11Service games held7/11
61%Service points won56%
44%Return points won40%
82Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MartinTourT. Cacao
Service points won61%62%59%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held75%76%70%
Breaks of serve27%24%25%
Aces per service game0.290.30
Double faults per game0.240.25
Sets with a tie-break12%15%
Tie-breaks won5/102/4
Wins in straight sets44%100%
Matches in the sample3711

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Andrej Martin

Tiago Cacao

  • 11/10/26LSergi Perez Contri#429Challenger Maia · Q16:2 3:6 1:6
  • 05/10/26LOlle Wallin#413Challenger Braga · Q25:7 6:7
  • 04/10/26WMilos Karol#569Challenger Braga · Q16:4 6:4
  • 27/09/26LAnton Matusevich#307Challenger Porto 2 · Q16:4 4:6 4:6
  • 01/09/26LAlejandro Moro Canas#232Challenger Porto · R326:3 1:6 4:6
  • 31/08/26WAlafia Ayeni#434Challenger Porto · Q27:6 6:1
  • 30/08/26WRodrigo DuarteChallenger Porto · Q16:2 6:1
  • 23/08/26LFabrizio Andaloro#778Challenger Roehampton 2 · Q15:7 1:6
  • 25/01/26LAdria Soriano Barrera#782Challenger Oeiras 2 · Q13:6 6:7
  • 18/01/26LMathys Erhard#354Challenger Oeiras · Q17:6 4:6 4:6

Elo over the last year

Andrej MartinTiago Cacao

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MartinT. Cacao
Hard court0–00–40%
Clay23–1462%3–443%

Head to head

They have not met yet.