WTA 125 LisbonRound of 32claybest of three sets
Matias vs Hercog 0:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Madalena Matias3%
Polona Hercog97%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Matias2%
2:1 M. Matias2%
2:1 P. Hercog10%
2:0 P. Hercog87%
First set
Madalena Matias7%
Polona Hercog93%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes12%
no88%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 15.5 · 58%market (no margin): 49%
The 15.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 17.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 83% | 17% | 97% |
| 14.5 | 71% | 29% | 93% |
| 15.5 | 58% | 42% | 87% |
| 16.5 | 46% | 54% | 78% |
| 17.5 | 34% | 66% | 69% |
| 18.5 | 26% | 74% | 60% |
| 19.5 | 21% | 79% | 52% |
Sample: 390 matches
Games handicap
Polona Hercog −7.556%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes7%
tour average 20%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 0:2
- Total games Over 15.5out · 12 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Madalena Matias | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Aces | 2 |
| 3 | Double faults | 5 |
| 77% | First serves in | 76% |
| 32% | First-serve points won | 83% |
| 40% | Second-serve points won | 22% |
| 0/0 | Break points converted | 6/9 |
| 0/6 | Service games held | 6/6 |
| 34% | Service points won | 68% |
| 32% | Return points won | 66% |
| 27 | Total points won | 55 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Matias | Tour | P. Hercog | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | — | 56% | 58% |
| Return points won | — | 44% | 45% |
| Service games held | — | 63% | 67% |
| Breaks of serve | — | 37% | 38% |
| Aces per service game | — | 0.21 | |
| Double faults per game | — | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | — | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | — | 6/12 | |
| Wins in straight sets | — | 59% | |
| Matches in the sample | — | 32 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Madalena Matias
- 22/09/26LVeronika Podrez#124WTA 125 Porto · R326:4 1:6 2:6
- 16/02/26LFiona Crawley#208WTA 125 Oeiras 2 · R320:6 1:6
Polona Hercog
- 21/09/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#139WTA 125 Tolentino · R327:6 1:6 6:7
- 14/09/26LJulie Struplova#237WTA 125 Ljubljana · R326:7 2:6
- 25/08/26LMoyuka Uchijima#121WTA US Open · Q13:6 3:6
- 16/07/26LJeline Vandromme#123WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R164:6 0:3
- 13/07/26WDalila Jakupovic#390WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R326:2 2:6 6:4
- 23/06/26LBianca Andreescu#168WTA Wimbledon · Q14:6 2:6
- 18/05/26LAnna Bondar#66WTA Rabat · R321:1
- 01/05/26LXiyu Wang#91WTA 125 Huzhou · QF3:6 7:6 4:6
- 30/04/26WYufei Ren#291WTA 125 Huzhou · R165:7 6:1 6:4
- 28/04/26WXinyu Gao#220WTA 125 Huzhou · R324:6 7:6 6:3
Elo over the last year
Madalena MatiasPolona Hercog
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Matias | P. Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 0–20% | 0–10% |
| Clay | 0–0 | 17–1357% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.